The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which debuted with much fanfare in January, is struggling to maintain its early momentum. While the ETF has gained 22.08% since the start of the year, it has lost a significant 20.94% in the past six months. This slump has left investors wondering if the hype surrounding Bitcoin ETFs is fading.
Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has seized the opportunity to highlight this weakness. He pointed out that Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT, have underperformed, achieving less than a 17% gain since their launch. In contrast, gold ETFs, like the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), have surged 24% despite waning investor interest. Schiff sarcastically suggested that Bitcoin investors “bet on the wrong horse.”
However, not everyone is bearish. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, believes Bitcoin ETFs are a historic success, with investment advisors adopting them at a record pace. He argues that these impressive inflows are being overshadowed by even larger investments in other markets, thus dampening the overall impact.
From a technical standpoint, the outlook for IBIT is bleak. The ETF is trading below its five, 20, and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating a strong bearish trend. Additionally, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is negative, signifying further downward momentum. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at a neutral 45.28, suggesting that the ETF is not quite in bounce-back territory.
Bollinger Bands also reveal that IBIT is hovering within the lower band of its range, reinforcing the short-term bearish signal.
As Bitcoin ETFs face increasing scrutiny, IBIT investors may have to prepare for more turbulence. Whether the ETF will rebound or succumb to Schiff’s “wrong horse” prophecy remains to be seen.
