Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is trading close to $70,450 on Thursday afternoon, as the market braces for potential volatility linked to the upcoming US election. The cryptocurrency recently hit a high of $73,563, narrowly missing its all-time high of $73,797 reached in March, according to CoinGecko data.
Market experts, including Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered and Ruslan Lienkha from YouHodler, believe that Bitcoin’s price may experience significant swings leading up to the election, prompting traders to exercise caution. Kendrick, the head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, anticipates that Bitcoin’s price may remain below $73,000 on election day due to possible pre-election profit-taking.
“We’re more likely to be lower than $73,000 than higher on election day due to potential pre-election unwinding,” Kendrick stated in a note shared with Benzinga. Options markets are currently reflecting a surge in volatility anticipated around the election, with “a 7-day at-the-money volatility premium over the 30-day,” which Kendrick compares to the pre-launch period of the first Bitcoin ETF. This premium reflects traders’ expectation for sharp movements in the market around and after election day.
Kendrick’s analysis projects potential price targets for Bitcoin in the near term, estimating a break-even scenario that could see Bitcoin reach $76,000 within a week and up to $78,000 over the next two weeks. In a scenario where Republicans sweep the election, Kendrick believes Bitcoin could experience further gains, potentially reaching $125,000 by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Lienkha, the chief of markets at YouHodler, emphasizes Bitcoin’s sustained upward momentum since the beginning of 2023, attributed to institutional players and major market participants driving the long-term trend. He acknowledges Bitcoin’s periods of correction and accumulation, noting that these consolidations have laid a foundation for continued growth, a trend that may extend through 2025.
Lienkha’s technical analysis identifies a flag pattern formation for Bitcoin’s price over the past six months, often indicative of a trend continuation. As Bitcoin breaks out of this pattern, Lienkha suggests that a new all-time high may be the next key objective. He identifies $80,000 as a “psychological level” that might lead some investors to lock in profits, potentially adding selling pressure as Bitcoin approaches that threshold.
Addressing the influence of global equity markets on Bitcoin, Lienkha acknowledges that a significant correction in equities could spill over into the cryptocurrency market. “Any significant equity correction will likely increase volatility in the crypto market, potentially complicating Bitcoin’s upward trajectory,” he explains. This connection between equities and digital assets highlights the interconnectedness of global financial markets and their influence on Bitcoin’s movement.
Both Kendrick and Lienkha agree that a broader trend toward institutional adoption, along with potential policy shifts, are likely to maintain Bitcoin’s upward trajectory post-election. With Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event scheduled for November 19, crypto investors and traders will have a timely opportunity to gain insights from industry experts on navigating these complex market dynamics and understanding the evolving digital assets landscape.
