In a detailed social media post, pseudonymous trader CJ shared his insights on the current Bitcoin market, predicting a bullish Q4 despite the recent downward trend. He argues that focusing solely on bullish or bearish sentiment is not the most effective approach to navigating the market. Instead, he emphasizes the importance of understanding the probabilities of market movements.
CJ identifies the July range as a bullish range, but highlights that the market is currently consolidating below a series of equal highs on the premium side of the range. He believes that Bitcoin prices are likely to rebound, potentially finding support at $65,000-$67,700, leading to a significant upside by November or December 2024.
However, CJ also acknowledges the possibility of a sell-off, stating that there are no clear signs of strength at present. He suggests that $56,000-$57,000 might act as a decent area to look for long positions, but also considers $49,000 as a potential support level.
According to CJ, the market condition will shift definitively once Bitcoin reclaims the $70,000 level. He believes that a near-term start at $64,000 would be a positive sign.
In summarizing his outlook, CJ predicts an upside to a new all-time high by the end of the year, a potential downside to $56,000-$57,000 (or even $49,000) in the medium term, and a short-term upside from $60,000 to $62,500.
CJ’s analysis provides a valuable perspective on the current Bitcoin market, highlighting both the potential for bullish growth and the risks of a sell-off. This nuanced approach offers insights for investors seeking to navigate the ever-changing landscape of cryptocurrency trading.
