The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin. According to renowned economist and trader Alex Krüger, a Donald Trump victory could propel Bitcoin’s price to a staggering $90,000 by year-end, driven by expectations of pro-crypto policies and enhanced regulatory clarity under a Republican administration. Krüger assigns a 55% probability to this outcome.
However, if Kamala Harris emerges as the victor, Bitcoin’s price is projected to hover around $65,000, with a 45% probability. This outcome is likely to maintain the existing regulatory landscape, resulting in a less volatile price trajectory for Bitcoin. Krüger emphasizes that a Trump victory could lead to a sharp, immediate rise in Bitcoin’s price, as markets often react swiftly to binary events.
Krüger’s analysis points to a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the equities market. A Democratic sweep (victory in both the presidency and Congress) could negatively impact equities, potentially dragging down Bitcoin as well. Conversely, a Trump win is expected to bolster equities due to anticipated increased government spending and pro-business policies, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.
Krüger’s predictions are supported by betting markets, where Trump’s probability of winning currently ranges from 57% to 62.6%. The uncertainty surrounding the election reinforces Krüger’s belief that Bitcoin will not experience a “sell the news” scenario post-election, regardless of the outcome.
This election-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s potential price movements adds significant context to the upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19th. The event promises to delve deeper into the impact of the election on the crypto market and other relevant topics.
As the election approaches, the cryptocurrency community will be keenly observing these developments, particularly the potential impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Whether Trump or Harris takes the Oval Office, the outcome is likely to have a profound impact on the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.
