The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to make gains in vote share in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls in Punjab, but whether or not that vote share will translate into seats is a matter of uncertainty, according to former Union Law Minister Ashwani Kumar. Kumar, who resigned from the Congress ahead of the Punjab Assembly elections in 2022, said that the state would witness a multi-cornered contest in the Lok Sabha polls, which is unprecedented in its electoral history.
In an interview with The Indian Express, Kumar said that there is a significant segment of the non-farming community in Punjab’s villages that sympathizes with the Hindutva sentiment. He has interacted with many people from remote villages in Punjab, and there is an element of sympathy with ideas of nationalism, patriotism, and religious identity, which is now associated with the BJP. Therefore, the BJP’s vote share is likely to increase and will reflect in the voting pattern.
However, he added that it is difficult to say whether or not that vote share will translate into seats. Kumar also noted that Punjab’s farmers will never support the BJP, as they have been holding protests against the party’s candidates during their election campaigns to express their dissatisfaction over their unmet demands.
Kumar acknowledged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the dominant political figure in the country at present, whether one likes it or not. Yet, he added that the issue of saving democracy and the Constitution being raised by the opposition Congress is a powerful narrative, but there seems to be a failure in communicating this message effectively to the people.
Punjab is expected to see a fractured mandate in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls due to the presence of four or five major political parties in the electoral arena. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), being the ruling party with the largest number of MLAs, cannot be overlooked. In the absence of significant anti-incumbency against them, AAP is likely to perform well in certain parliamentary constituencies.
The anti-incumbency vote against AAP might get split, benefiting the ruling party. The Congress is expected to have an advantage as it still has a base in every village of Punjab and is expected to gain from the anti-incumbency sentiment against AAP. On the other hand, the BJP is likely to see a significant surge in its vote share, particularly in urban areas, which is its core constituency. However, it is also expected to expand its support base even in rural areas.
Kumar opined that the Akali Dal could face a setback in terms of electoral outcomes but might succeed in consolidating or retaining its traditional vote bank due to its stand against the BJP. However, he believes that the party will suffer significantly in terms of seats.
Kumar expressed concern that elections have become too individual-centric, particularly for the benefit of the BJP, as the focus is on the Prime Minister. He emphasized the need to concentrate the discourse on the core issues facing the nation.
Currently, there are two main narratives in the country: the BJP’s narrative anchored in nationalism and religious sentiments, and the opposition’s narrative of democracy, the Constitution, justice, dignity, equality, and inclusion. According to Kumar, the opposition needs to ensure that its alternative narrative has emotional appeal and is communicated in a language easily understood by the people, as the Prime Minister’s messages seem to resonate well with the public.
Another crucial factor is that the Lok Sabha elections are for electing the Prime Minister of the country. The question of who other than Modi remains relevant for a large number of people. Unless the opposition can project a leadership of stature and quality to support its alternative narrative, the BJP will continue to have an advantage.
Kumar also expressed concern about the perception that political opponents are being squeezed, which is detrimental to the future of democracy and could leave long-lasting scars.
