The upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha election is expected to see the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retain power despite a decline in voter turnout. According to brokerage firm Antique, the incumbent government is likely to improve upon its 2019 tally of 353 seats but fall short of opinion poll projections of 370-410 seats. This analysis is based on a study of voter turnout data, which reveals a drop from 68.6% in 2019 to 66.5% in 2024.
The decline in voter turnout is particularly concerning as it could result in seat losses for the BJP, as was observed in the 2004 elections. However, Antique believes that a repeat of the 2004 trend is unlikely as the BJP’s voter base has significantly expanded, especially among lower-income households. This expansion is attributed to a series of welfare schemes implemented by the government, which have led to a significant increase in the BJP’s winning voter share.
While the drop in voter turnout may have a minimal impact on BJP-held seats, it could affect Congress-held seats, where the winning margin is less than 5%. This is because the lower voter turnout is more pronounced in these seats. Despite the challenges posed by the decline in voter turnout, the BJP remains well-positioned to retain power in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
