The upcoming launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Xbox Game Pass has sent ripples through the gaming industry, with analysts and gamers alike weighing in on its potential impact. While some experts believe the move could lead to a significant drop in game sales, they also acknowledge the potential for a substantial surge in Xbox subscriptions.
The strategy, however, is not without its risks. Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush, estimates that offering Black Ops 6 on Game Pass could result in up to six million lost sales, based on the assumption that a considerable portion of Game Pass subscribers would have purchased the game otherwise. However, Pachter also believes the move could attract between three and four million new subscribers to Game Pass, which could ultimately benefit Microsoft.
“Good overall for Microsoft and for consumers,” Pachter said to GamesIndustry.biz. “But the headline will say, ‘Call of Duty sales are down.’”
A survey conducted by IGN revealed that 70% of respondents who plan to play Black Ops 6 are already Game Pass subscribers and intend to access the game through the service. A significant 8% stated they plan to subscribe to Game Pass specifically for the new Call of Duty release.
Piers Harding-Rolls, chief games analyst at Ampere, offers a more cautious outlook. He predicts a 10% increase in Game Pass Ultimate subscriptions, translating to approximately 2.5 million new users. However, Harding-Rolls highlights that not all these users will be entirely new, with some likely upgrading from lower-tier Game Pass subscriptions.
Harding-Rolls acknowledges that Microsoft might experience a decline in premium game sales but emphasizes the potential to compensate through other forms of monetization, especially considering the live-service nature of Call of Duty. He points to the recent removal of the 14-day $1 trial offer as a sign that Microsoft aims to maximize its subscription revenue.
While the inclusion of Call of Duty on Game Pass may be costly for Microsoft in the short term, Harding-Rolls believes the shift from traditional sales to in-game monetization could help the company recover some of the investment. He expects Xbox and PC to be crucial for Black Ops 6’s audience expansion, while the role of cloud gaming in the launch remains less clear.
Brett Hunt, a market analyst at Newzoo, believes Black Ops 6 will perform better than last year’s Modern Warfare 3, attributing this not only to its Game Pass launch but also to its standalone campaign and new gameplay mechanics. “This is the most Call of Duty has been reinvigorated in recent years,” Hunt said to GamesIndustry.biz.
Regarding the end of Activision’s content exclusivity agreement with PlayStation, some analysts speculate that Call of Duty could shift players towards Xbox, given that Game Pass is not available on PlayStation. Harding-Rolls suggests the impact could be limited by the game’s cross-platform play features, which allow players to access the game across multiple devices using a single account.
Dr. Serkan Toto, an analyst at Katan Games, highlights the significant pressure on Xbox to ensure the success of this strategy. “We all know that Microsoft’s gaming unit has not been growing as expected,” Toto said. “If Call of Duty doesn’t make the Game Pass business model work, what possibly can?”
Pachter remains optimistic, noting that Call of Duty players tend to stay engaged with the game for longer periods due to its multiplayer features and regular updates. “Call of Duty players generally play for much longer because of multiplayer and frequent map drops,” he added.
The launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass represents a bold move by Microsoft, aiming to boost Xbox subscriptions and potentially reshape the gaming landscape. However, the long-term success of this strategy hinges on a delicate balancing act between attracting new subscribers and retaining existing ones while mitigating potential losses in game sales. Only time will tell if this gamble pays off for Microsoft, but the industry is watching closely.