The legal saga surrounding Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, is nearing its climax as her sentencing hearing approaches on Tuesday in New York. While the outcome remains uncertain, traders on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, are heavily leaning towards the possibility of Ellison avoiding prison time.
Data from Polymarket reveals a 45% chance that Ellison will receive no prison time, with a significant $153,679 wagered on this outcome. The market currently reflects a 49-cent price for “Yes” and a 59-cent price for “No” regarding her receiving no jail time.
However, the market also predicts other potential outcomes for Ellison’s sentencing. There is a 21% chance that she will serve between 1-11 months in prison, with $52,225 bet on this scenario. Additionally, a 24% chance exists that she will serve between 12-23 months, with $27,498 wagered. The smallest probability, at just 6%, is for a sentence of 24-35 months, with $27,724 staked.
Ellison’s legal team has been advocating for supervised release, citing her “extraordinary cooperation” with prosecutors. This plea deal was filed shortly after her former colleague and FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was charged in December 2022. Ellison’s willingness to cooperate has been a key factor in the defense’s argument for leniency.
While traders are heavily betting on the possibility of no jail time, reflecting the defense’s argument, they have also placed substantial wagers on short-term prison outcomes, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the case. These developments will be closely watched ahead of Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where experts are expected to discuss the regulatory and legal impacts of major cases like Ellison’s on the broader crypto industry.
The outcome of Ellison’s sentencing will be closely watched by the crypto industry, with implications for future regulatory actions and the legal landscape surrounding digital assets.
