The United States conducts a census every ten years to determine the size of its population. The results of this census have a direct impact on the number of representatives each state has in the House of Representatives, as well as the number of electoral votes each state is allocated in presidential elections. Given that the census counts both citizens and noncitizens, some individuals have questioned whether the presence of undocumented immigrants in the country could indirectly influence election outcomes.
A reader named Lennard expressed concern that if unauthorized immigrants were not included in the census count, Democrats would lose 20 seats in the House of Representatives and 20 electoral votes. We investigated this claim to determine its accuracy.
The allocation of House seats based on state populations is a process known as apportionment, which is mandated by the Constitution. The current apportionment formula was established by federal law in the 1940s. To assess how the electoral map might change if unauthorized immigrants were not included in the count, we analyzed state population data from the most recent census in 2020. We subtracted the estimated number of unauthorized immigrants in each state, as reported by the Pew Research Center, and applied the apportionment formula to the adjusted population figures.
Our analysis revealed that if unauthorized immigrants were excluded from the census count, California and Texas would each lose one House seat, while Ohio and Michigan would each gain one. However, it is important to note that these changes would not be implemented until those states redraw their district maps and hold elections. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the precise impact on the balance of power in the House.
From an electoral college perspective, using the results of the 2020 election, Biden would have lost one elector in California but gained one in Michigan. Trump would have lost one elector in Texas but gained one in Ohio. This indicates that excluding unauthorized immigrants from the census would not have altered the outcome of the most recent presidential election.
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