While Chennai has experienced a mostly dry and hot August, there is a slight chance of rainfall before the month ends. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts minimal chances of widespread rain, attributing it to the concentration of winds and moisture around an existing deep depression near Gujarat and a developing low pressure over the north Bay of Bengal on August 29th. The IMD suggests that the westerlies will be weak over Chennai, reducing the likelihood of rain.
N Senthamarai Kannan, director of the regional weather forecasting center, IMD, stated, “Rain activity may be subdued over Tamil Nadu including Chennai for the next one week to 10 days.” The IMD predicts light to moderate rain with thunderstorms and lightning in some areas over the next 48 hours. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 35°C to 36°C, and minimum temperatures from 28°C to 29°C, with partly cloudy skies.
Despite the IMD’s forecast, blogger Pradeep John suggests that isolated rain spells are possible due to convection during the evening hours. He acknowledges that the city will likely continue experiencing hot days.
Historically, the second half of August has seen the highest 24-hour rainfall in six of the past 10 years. The highest rainfall recorded in the past 10 years was 9 cm on August 25, 2014. The all-time record stands at 16 cm of rainfall on August 25, 2011. The average rainfall for August is 13 cm. So far, the Nungambakkam observatory has recorded 7 cm of rainfall. Since June 1, the Nungambakkam and Meenambakkam observatories have recorded 48 cm and 57 cm of rainfall, respectively, which are about 18 cm and 25 cm above normal.
While Chennai braces for a dry end to August, it’s worth noting that localized convective showers have contributed to significant rainfall in other parts of India. For instance, Pune experienced its wettest August in four years, with 203.8 mm of rainfall recorded in the first 24 days. Goa has been issued a yellow alert until August 27 due to heavy rainfall and strong winds. Mumbai and surrounding areas are also on high alert, with the IMD predicting heavy rainfall due to low-pressure zones over West Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
