As the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) convenes in Beijing, the elephant in the room will be unfulfilled promises made at previous summits. President Xi Jinping is hosting leaders from 50 African nations as they look to reassess and redefine the strategic partnership with Beijing, against a backdrop of China’s slowing economy and unmet promises from earlier engagements. This summit, taking place from September 4-6, comes at a critical time when African nations are grappling with economic challenges, political instability, and global geopolitical shifts.
In 2021, China made ambitious pledges to Africa, including a commitment to purchase $300 billion worth of goods by 2024 and substantial investments in infrastructure and economic development. However, China, with its own economy struggling against a global backlash following its poor handling of the Covid-19 outbreak and its subsequent military assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region, fell short of its commitment. In 2023, Chinese loans to Africa totaled just $4.61 billion, a sharp decline from the $60 billion promised in 2015. This shortfall has raised concerns among African leaders, who are expected to seek clarity from President Xi on the reasons behind these unmet commitments. One of the most pressing issues is the incomplete infrastructure projects, notably a major rail link intended to connect key East African cities. The delays and unfulfilled promises are fuelling growing scepticism about China’s role in Africa’s development.
Amid challenges and concerns, China looks to keep the focus of the FOCAC summit on building a narrative around its vision of a green economic future powered by African minerals. This aligns with China’s broader strategy to secure critical resources for its manufacturing sector, particularly in the context of the global energy transition. However, China’s competitors, including the US, UK, India and Russia, are also vying for influence in Africa, complicating Beijing’s ambitions. Digital and technological cooperation is another key area of focus at the summit. China is keen to help bridge Africa’s digital divide, with discussions expected to centre on investments in digital infrastructure and technology transfer. These initiatives are part of China’s broader effort to solidify its influence in the Global South.
The FOCAC summit is also taking place amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the ongoing conflicts in Africa (particularly Sudan), in its neighbouring West Asia, Ukraine, and the Asia-Pacific region with China’s growing military assertiveness. Africa is also witnessing an intense rivalry among other global powers for their influence in the continent. African nations are increasingly wary of being caught in the crossfire of these global rivalries, and many are expected to push for a more balanced and independent approach to their foreign relations.
For African leaders, the FOCAC summit is also about a strategic dilemma. On the one hand, they are eager to deepen cooperation with China, especially for infrastructure development in their respective countries, to boost agriculture output, and tap green energy potential. On the other hand, there is a growing awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on Chinese investments, particularly given the high levels of debt many African countries are already grappling with.
Experts have urged African leaders to take a more proactive role in shaping the agenda at FOCAC 2024, representing their interests more strongly than they have in the previous eight summits. This includes pushing for more sustainable and mutually beneficial partnerships, rather than simply accepting Chinese terms. There is also a call for greater African agency in negotiations, with a focus on ensuring that investments align with the continent’s long-term development goals.
The outcome of the FOCAC summit will be closely watched. The decisions made could set the tone for a new era of China-Africa relations, one that is more balanced and focused on mutual benefits. However, this will require a shift in how both sides approach the partnership, with African nations taking greater ownership of their strategic goals and China being more transparent and responsive to African needs. As geopolitics continues to realign, the nature of the China-Africa partnership may emerge as a key factor in shaping the future of the Global South.
