China has issued a strong condemnation of Lithuania’s recent decision to expel three Chinese diplomats stationed in Vilnius, characterizing the move as “wanton and provocative.” The expulsion marks a significant escalation in the already strained relationship between the two countries, a relationship deeply impacted by Lithuania’s support for Taiwan and recent suspicions surrounding damaged undersea telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea.
The root of this escalating conflict lies in Lithuania’s 2021 decision to allow Taiwan to open a representative office under the name “Taiwan.” This action, unlike similar offices in other countries that use the title “Taipei,” was viewed by Beijing as a direct challenge to its “One-China” policy, which considers Taiwan an inseparable part of its territory. In response to Lithuania’s move, China downgraded diplomatic relations, pressured multinational corporations to limit their engagement with Lithuania, and Lithuania, in turn, recalled its ambassador from Beijing.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement following the expulsion accused Lithuania of violating the One-China Principle and breaching commitments made during the establishment of diplomatic relations. The Ministry spokesperson emphasized that Lithuania’s actions constitute a serious violation of the previously agreed-upon political commitments, severely hindering bilateral ties. While Lithuania justified the expulsion by citing unspecified violations of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and domestic law, Beijing vehemently rejects these accusations and demands a reversal of the decision.
Adding to the already tense situation is the recent incident involving severed telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. One of these cables connected Lithuania to Sweden. Suspicions have fallen upon a Chinese vessel, the Yi Peng 3, due to its proximity to the damaged cables at the time of the incident. Although no definitive evidence directly links the Chinese ship to the sabotage, Lithuania, along with Sweden and Finland, has launched a joint investigation with the assistance of Eurojust, the European Union’s criminal justice cooperation agency. China denies any involvement and claims willingness to cooperate, yet the timing of the incident fuels growing mistrust.
Lithuania’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, characterized by its strong advocacy for democratic values and criticism of authoritarian regimes, has further strained relations with China. Vilnius’ close alignment with Western powers, including the US and the EU, and its outspoken support for Taiwan, particularly in the face of Beijing’s policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, have made Lithuania a focal point of China’s displeasure. Despite facing economic and diplomatic pressure, Lithuania has remained resolute, demonstrating its commitment to national sovereignty and security interests.
China’s response to the expulsion includes a reiteration of its unwavering commitment to the One-China Principle. Beijing urges Lithuania to cease its “provocative actions” and work towards normalizing bilateral relations, expressing hope that Lithuania’s incoming government will adopt a more pragmatic diplomatic approach, respecting international norms and commitments. However, the veiled threat of potential countermeasures, which could include economic sanctions, further diplomatic downgrades, or restrictions on Lithuanian businesses in China, casts a shadow over the future of the relationship. The international community now awaits to see if diplomacy can prevail or if the situation will further escalate.
