The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has had an unexpected consequence on global aviation, particularly benefiting Chinese airlines. While airlines from Europe, the US, and other countries face restrictions overflying Russian airspace due to the conflict, Chinese carriers are capitalizing on Beijing’s cordial relations with Moscow. This allows them to utilize shorter northern routes over Russia’s vast airspace, reaching Europe and North America with a significant cost and time advantage over their Western counterparts.
The resulting impact is a noticeable shift in the global aviation market. Chinese airlines offer not only shorter flight times but also cheaper tickets from China to foreign destinations. For example, British Airways’ flights from London to Beijing now take around 2.5 hours longer than China Southern’s daily flights on the same route, highlighting the competitive edge Chinese carriers enjoy.
The pressure is evident as Western airlines are scaling down operations. British Airways recently announced the suspension of its London-Beijing route for a year, citing commercial reasons. Virgin Atlantic is also indefinitely suspending its London-Shanghai service due to longer flight times. Other airlines, like Qantas, have pulled back from routes such as Sydney-Shanghai, citing low demand and half-empty planes. US carriers have also reduced their services to China, with flights between the two countries currently operating at just 20% of pre-pandemic levels.
The shift in market share is undeniable, with Chinese carriers now operating a higher proportion of international flights to and from China than before the pandemic. Major US airlines and aviation unions are expressing concerns to the US government, arguing that Chinese carriers are benefiting unfairly from Beijing’s policies and the Russia overflight advantage. They warn that unchecked growth of Chinese airlines could lead to further erosion of the competitive balance in the global aviation market, resulting in even more flight losses for Western carriers.
