## China’s Airshow 2024: A Bold Display of Power and Growing Concerns
China’s Airshow 2024, held in Zhuhai from November 12-17, was more than just an exhibition of cutting-edge military technology. It served as a powerful demonstration of China’s burgeoning military might, sending ripples of concern across the Asia-Pacific region, with India at the forefront of anxieties.
The airshow showcased an array of advanced military equipment, highlighting China’s rapid advancements in defense capabilities. Among the star attractions were the HQ-19 surface-to-air missile system, the J-35A stealth fighter jet, and the J-15T carrier-based fighter. These powerful technologies represent a significant step forward for China’s military, raising critical questions about the potential impact on regional security and stability.
HQ-19 Missile System: A New Era of Missile Defense
The HQ-19 surface-to-air missile system, a standout feature at the airshow, represents a major leap forward in China’s regional defense capabilities. This advanced weapon system is specifically designed to intercept ballistic missiles, a crucial development in the ever-evolving landscape of missile defense technologies. The HQ-19 boasts the capability to target hypersonic vehicles and various ballistic missile threats, significantly enhancing the Chinese Air Force’s ability to counter high-speed attacks.
The missile system’s long range and vertical launch capability allow it to intercept missiles from a considerable distance, even beyond China’s borders. This establishes a formidable “missile shield” that could potentially deter other countries from launching missiles. For nations like India, heavily reliant on ballistic missiles for defense, the HQ-19 could drastically alter their missile defense planning. Its ability to intercept advanced missile threats poses a direct challenge to India’s existing missile defense systems, like the Russian-made S-400.
J-35A Stealth Fighter Jet: A Threat to Regional Air Power Balance
The J-35A stealth fighter jet, making its inaugural appearance at Airshow China 2024, has sparked significant concern among China’s neighbors. As China’s second stealth fighter after the J-20, the J-35A is a highly versatile aircraft designed to excel in a multitude of missions, from dominating the skies to striking ground targets with precision. Its ability to take off from aircraft carriers further enhances its strategic value.
The J-35A’s advanced stealth design and exceptional threat detection capabilities grant China a considerable advantage in the air, boosting both its offensive and defensive capabilities. This cutting-edge aircraft is positioned to challenge advanced jets like India’s Rafale and America’s F-35, potentially upsetting the delicate air power balance in Asia. For India, this development is particularly alarming, given the Indian Air Force’s current struggle with dwindling fighter squadron strength, with only 31 squadrons in operation, significantly below the recommended 42.
The situation is further exacerbated by the impending retirement of older jets like the MiG-21 and Jaguars, with the MiG-21 being phased out by 2025. While India is introducing new jets like the Rafale and Tejas Mk-1A, production and delivery delays hinder their deployment, leaving a significant gap in the air fleet. India has plans for future indigenous jets like the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft, the country’s fifth-generation multirole fighter jet, and the Tejas Mk-2, but these programs are years away from mass production.
The confluence of China’s burgeoning air power and India’s fighter shortages could create a critical defense gap for India in the near future, highlighting the urgent need for rapid modernization of its air fleet to maintain regional security. If China deploys the J-35A on its navy carriers, it can project air power far beyond its shores, particularly in contested areas like the South China Sea. This development could make it significantly more difficult for nearby countries, including Vietnam and the Philippines, to formulate their defense strategies as China’s aerial reach continues to expand.
J-15T and China’s Evolving Naval Aviation
China’s J-15T, an upgraded version of its carrier-based fighter jet, could dramatically shift the military balance in the region. The J-15T utilizes electromagnetic catapults, similar to those found in the US Navy’s advanced systems, allowing it to carry heavier weapon loads and extend its operational range. This provides China’s navy with enhanced flexibility and operational reach, bolstering its position in the Asia-Pacific region.
India faces considerable challenges in developing its own carrier-based aircraft capabilities, particularly when compared to China. Limited funding has significantly slowed the growth of India’s naval fleet, putting it at a disadvantage to China, which has a clear advantage with more aircraft carriers in the pipeline and ambitious plans, such as the advanced Fujian, set to further augment its naval power.
The introduction of the J-15T in the South China Sea, an area rife with territorial disputes, underscores China’s commitment to defending its maritime claims. Countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, also laying claim to this region, may find it increasingly difficult to keep pace with China’s growing naval air power.
Implications for Regional Stability: A Shifting Landscape
China’s rapid military advancements highlight its ambition to expand its influence across the Asia-Pacific region, potentially challenging the existing security framework. China’s progress in advanced air and missile technology is putting the resilience of security alliances, such as the Quad (the US, India, Japan, and Australia), under scrutiny as they work to uphold a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
With China’s military footprint expanding, nearby countries may feel compelled to reconsider their defense strategies, potentially igniting an arms race to keep pace with China’s growing influence. For India, these changes pose a multifaceted threat. As China strengthens both its air and naval forces, India faces mounting pressure on its Himalayan border as well as in the Indian Ocean Region, where China’s expanding naval presence challenges India’s historical dominance.
Furthermore, China’s increasing military influence in countries near India through infrastructure projects like those under the Belt and Road Initiative could potentially lead to India being encircled by Chinese military power. As Airshow China 2024 showcased these formidable weapons, China sent a clear message to the world—it intends to reshape the future of global power dynamics, one missile and jet at a time. The region, including India, is left to grapple with the implications of this bold display of power and its potential impact on regional security and stability.
