Four hundred kilometers north of the Arctic Circle, in the Norwegian port of Kirkenes, dreams of a bustling shipping hub linger. This sleepy town was envisioned as the western terminus of a faster sea route from China to Europe, fueled by the opening of ice-filled waters off the Siberian coast due to global warming. However, the war in Ukraine has cast a shadow over these ambitions. China’s support for Russia has fueled Western distrust of its ‘polar silk road’ plans, creating a geopolitical quagmire that threatens to freeze the project’s progress.
Kirkenes, situated just 15 minutes from the Russian border, has felt the chill firsthand. Tourists, once drawn to ‘king crab safaris’ that brought them face-to-face with the Russian border, now find the experience curtailed. On May 29th, Norway closed the border crossing to day-trippers from Russia, a tangible symbol of the conflict’s impact. Tensions have escalated, as evidenced by a recent incident where Russia’s envoy in Kirkenes laid a wreath at a Soviet war memorial, despite local politicians’ pleas against it.
This frosty atmosphere makes the realization of China’s Arctic silk-road project, unveiled in 2017, seem increasingly improbable. The vision was alluring: shipments from Shanghai to Hamburg could be completed in a mere 18 days via the Northern Sea Route, compared to the 35-day journey through the Suez Canal or the even longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. Kirkenes hoped to become the first ice-free port for Chinese container ships after their Arctic voyage, a strategic location for offloading cargo and facilitating onward transport to European markets. Chinese businesspeople were enthusiastic about the prospect, as the project promised to transform northern Europe from a mere endpoint to a gateway for goods from China.
However, the project faces significant hurdles. Kirkenes lacks a rail connection with Europe, despite past discussions of building a line through neighboring Finland. The Finnish government, however, has grown wary of the project due to its proximity to the Russian border and concerns about its impact on indigenous reindeer herders. The ongoing geopolitical instability has further dampened Finnish enthusiasm.
Western governments have long harbored concerns about China’s growing influence in the Arctic, fearing its potential to translate into political sway and a Chinese security presence that could exacerbate the Arctic challenge posed by Russia. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated these fears, leading to the suspension of activities in the Arctic Council, a forum involving the eight countries with Arctic territory. China, despite joining the council as an observer in 2013, finds itself increasingly isolated in the face of Western skepticism and growing NATO presence in the region.
While China maintains a ‘no-limits’ friendship with Russia and provides substantial support to its defense industry, the conflict has dealt a blow to its Arctic ambitions. Chinese scholars have expressed concerns about Russia’s waning influence in the Arctic and the potential for a decline in China’s own image in the region.
Despite the challenges, China still sees opportunities in the Arctic. Russian reliance on Asian markets for resources and a shift towards China for support has opened doors for Chinese firms to participate in port construction, oil and gas projects, and shipbuilding for Russia. While Russia may have initially been wary of Chinese involvement in its Arctic development, it now embraces the support due to its limited options.
However, the path forward remains treacherous. Western sanctions pose significant risks, prompting Chinese academics to urge caution and a low-profile approach in Arctic cooperation with Russia. Despite these risks, both China and Russia have expressed their commitment to promoting the Northern Sea Route and enhancing their cooperation in Arctic logistics.
The ‘silk road on ice’ remains an alluring prospect, albeit a slippery one. The war in Ukraine has cast a shadow on its future, highlighting the complex geopolitical landscape that governs the Arctic’s development.
