China’s aviation industry recently demonstrated remarkable resilience, outperforming other key global economies in strength. However, according to environmental intelligence firm Kayrros, this robustness may be waning due to what appears to be primarily built-up demand.
Kayrros, employing AI to analyze satellite images and transponder data from aircraft for climate insights, found that China was among the rare major economies to exceed pre-pandemic jet fuel consumption levels in the first quarter, reaching a peak in February during the Chinese New Year celebrations. This contrasted with the continued shortfall against 2019 levels in most other significant economies.
The Kayrros Jet Fuel Demand Tracker, which assesses global aviation activity daily through ADS-B signal analysis, noted that China’s jet fuel consumption in early 2024 hit 800,000 barrels per day for the first time, with February averages soaring to nearly 875,000 barrels — a record high. Meanwhile, the U.S., the largest aviation fuel market globally, has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic jet fuel use, partially due to significant advancements in fuel efficiency achieved post-pandemic. Similarly, Europe’s demand remains below its 2019 peaks.
While China leads in the electrification of vehicles and reducing gasoline demand, it trails behind in enhancing aviation fuel efficiency compared to the U.S. and Europe. The spike in China’s air travel in Q1 is typically seasonal, linked to the Lunar New Year celebrations. Nonetheless, the growth rate for international flights in the first four months of 2024, double that of the previous year, alongside a deceleration in domestic flight demand, points to additional factors at play.
Kayrros’ co-founder and Chief Analyst, Antoine Halff, attributes the initial surge in China’s aviation sector strength to accumulated demand, with indications of a normalization in the second quarter. After peaking in February, China’s jet fuel demand began to decrease by March, both in absolute terms and relative to 2019, falling below pre-pandemic levels by April and May. Official GDP figures for China also hinted at a slowdown in economic growth as the first quarter concluded. Given the inherent unsustainability of pent-up demand, Halff said, air travel in the second and third quarters of this year would be a more reliable indicator of China’s underlying economic health.
‘Chinese air travel lagged behind that of the other major economies in 2021 and 2022 due to Beijing’s “zero Covid” policy,’ he said. ‘While the rest of the world was reopening, China still had strict measures in place to control the spread of the virus. ‘Although those restrictions were lifted in December, 2022, international air travel remained stagnant through much of 2023, even as domestic travel began to recover. This is because there was a severe backlog of passport applications waiting to be processed. That had been put on hold during the lockdown. ‘Our data shows that where, in 2023, domestic flights led the recovery of Chinese air travel, this year international flights are catching up. Beijing seems to have worked through the passport backlog, and international travel is back with a vengeance.
‘If we want to understand globally important economic and environmental trends like these with the necessarily high level of precision, reliability and objectivity we need to analyse data drawn from or transmitted via satellite – from raw imagery to ADS-B signals – using cutting-edge tools, as we do. It’s the only way to paint a picture that we can trust.’
Jet fuel consumption is crucial for gauging the health of China’s economy, which is both intricate and less transparent. Thus, detailed metrics on China’s jet fuel usage provide deeper insights than overall economic growth figures might suggest. Jet fuel data is highly valued by economists, the travel and aviation industries, jet fuel market participants, and others. As China’s proportion of global jet fuel consumption increases, so does its influence on the market.
Kayrros, which was recently listed among the top innovative companies worldwide by Fast Company, offers its findings to international agencies like the United Nations Environment Programme and the International Energy Agency, and to corporations such as AXA. The company has also called for more stringent analysis of the voluntary carbon market to rebuild trust, following a controversial policy shift by the SBTi regarding carbon offset schemes. Kayrros’ studies have shown that most REDD+ projects effectively slow or stop deforestation. Renowned for addressing climate challenges, Kayrros is a recognized partner of global entities, private firms, and research bodies. Its methodologies and data accuracy have received validation from numerous peer-reviewed studies, including recent research by Stanford University. Kayrros is acknowledged as the global standard for monitoring methane emissions, playing a crucial role in identifying reporting inaccuracies and pushing for actions against major polluters. It has unveiled significant methane leaks in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, enhancing international climate efforts and diplomacy.
