China’s nuclear ambitions are on a rapid trajectory, with the country expected to double its nuclear warhead arsenal to 1,000 over the next five years, according to a new report by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). This dramatic escalation marks a significant shift in Beijing’s military posture and raises concerns about its potential intentions, particularly concerning Taiwan, which China considers its own territory.
The DIA report reveals that China’s nuclear force is undergoing the most rapid expansion and modernization in its history. While acknowledging that China’s capabilities are still behind the U.S. and Russia, the agency highlights the alarming pace of its nuclear buildup. In 2020, the DIA estimated China possessed 200 nuclear warheads, projecting a doubling by the end of the decade. However, the latest assessment indicates that China has already surpassed 500 warheads and is on track to surpass 1,000 by 2030.
This rapid expansion is coupled with escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan. The U.S. recently approved a $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan, including an advanced air defense system that has been battle-tested in Ukraine. In response, China has conducted another “combat control” operation near Taiwan and threatened countermeasures against the U.S. arms sale. Taiwan’s defense ministry reported the detection of 19 Chinese military aircraft, including Su-30 fighter jets, conducting a “joint combat readiness patrol” around Taiwan in conjunction with Chinese warships.
The DIA report also underscores a potential shift in China’s nuclear doctrine. While Beijing has traditionally adhered to a non-first-use policy and advocated for a joint commitment to this policy among nuclear powers, the report warns that Chinese nuclear thinkers may be reconsidering their stance. The report suggests that China might resort to nuclear weapons if a war over Taiwan poses an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The agency predicts that China could accept “greater risk” as its nuclear capabilities mature. Furthermore, the report mentions China’s pursuit of low-yield nuclear warheads, potentially for “proportional” responses to conflicts.
These developments have intensified concerns about the stability of the region and the global security landscape. As China continues to assert its military might, particularly in the Taiwan Strait, the international community closely watches the trajectory of its nuclear program and its potential impact on regional and global security. The DIA’s report underscores the need for vigilance and careful diplomacy in navigating the increasingly complex geopolitical environment.
