A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that China might employ a ‘quarantine’ strategy to take control of Taiwan without a full-scale invasion. This strategy, involving a blockade-like operation, aims to control maritime and air traffic around Taiwan, effectively dictating the terms of its engagement with the outside world.
Beijing considers Taiwan to be a breakaway province and is committed to its reunification with mainland China. It has not ruled out the use of force for the reunification. In recent years, Beijing’s military provocations have increased around Taiwan as exercises simulating invasion and takeover of Taiwan have become more and more aggressive. Just this morning, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said that 41 Chinese aircraft and seven naval vessels were spotted around Taiwan. Of those, 32 aircraft had entered the air defence identification zone (ADIZ) of the self-ruled island.
The report, based on in-depth research, tabletop exercises, private consultations, and expert surveys, outlines the potential ramifications of China’s ‘quarantine’ strategy. The quarantine strategy would involve deploying a blockade-like net around Taiwan to make it surrender to Beijing’s terms. While a blockade would involve the regular military, the quarantine strategy would include law-enforcement elements of Beijing’s security apparatus. This would mean that China would decide how, when, and on what terms countries and companies could access Taiwan and how, when, and on what terms Taiwan would have access to the outside world. The CNN reported that the China Coast Guard, Chinese maritime militia, and various police and maritime safety agencies could be part of such an operation.
This strategy poses a significant threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty and could have far-reaching consequences. The report warns that the quarantine strategy could put Taiwan’s partners in a difficult position, potentially deterring maritime trade and impacting the island’s economy. The threat of having ships seized by China could deter maritime trade with Taiwan and hit the country’s economy. For example, if the quarantine targets just the port of Kaohsiung, up to 57 per cent of the country’s trade could be affected, according to CNN. Such pressure on the economy, and possible imposition of requirements like the customs checks of ships by Chinese inspectors before entering Taiwan, could make Taiwan as well as the wider world bow to China’s pressure, suggests the report.
The CSIS report highlights the evolving nature of China’s military strategy and its increasing willingness to use unconventional methods to exert pressure on Taiwan. It serves as a stark reminder of the complex and delicate geopolitical situation in the region and the potential for escalation if China’s ‘quarantine’ strategy is implemented.
