The recent floods that ravaged Central Europe, claiming the lives of 24 people, serve as a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of climate change. A group of scientists from World Weather Attribution (WWA) has concluded that the intense rainfall responsible for the floods was made twice as likely by human-induced climate change.
Storm Boris, which stalled over Central Europe from September 12th to 16th, unleashed torrential rain across Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Austria, Czechia, Italy, and Germany. The impact was catastrophic, forcing thousands to flee their homes as buildings were swept away, bridges collapsed, and infrastructure was damaged.
The WWA researchers found that the four-day rainfall from Storm Boris was the heaviest ever recorded in Central Europe, exceeding previous historical floods in 1997 and 2002. The precipitation also covered an unusually large area. The scientists attribute this extreme weather event to a “perfect storm” scenario where cold air from the Alps met with warm air from the Mediterranean and Black Seas, leading to heavy rainfall over a vast region.
However, the scientists emphasize that while unusual conditions contributed to the flooding, climate change has significantly amplified the risk. Their analysis, using weather observations and climate models, revealed that climate change has made severe four-day downpours at least twice as likely and 7% heavier. This trend is projected to worsen with further global warming. If global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, similar storms will drop at least 5% more rain and occur around 50% more frequently.
The economic toll of these climate-driven disasters is also mounting. Austria’s insurance companies estimate that damages from the recent flooding could reach €1 billion. Poland has pledged €468 million in aid for affected families and home renovations, while Romania has allocated €20 million for affected households. The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, has pledged €10 billion in assistance for flood recovery.
However, WWA scientists argue that the sheer scale of the damage and disruption highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to prepare for future extreme weather events. While acknowledging that the floods were well-forecasted and that planning and action helped save lives, they stress that the intensity of these events requires new approaches to adaptation.
Beyond adapting to the changing climate, the scientists underscore the critical importance of tackling the root causes of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. “Crippling droughts in southern Italy, killer floods in Central Europe… climate change is wreaking havoc in Europe, but politicians across the continent are trying to pull back on climate commitments,” says Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute. She emphasizes the urgency of action, stating that “climate change is an existential threat, especially for poorer parts of society, and all Europeans need to know that tackling it will make their lives so much better.” Ending fossil fuel reliance, she argues, will not only mitigate climate change but also create jobs, lower energy bills, improve city environments, and reduce the risk of future disasters like the recent floods.
