Recent research has revealed that the skies are becoming increasingly turbulent as a result of climate change. A 55% increase in annual turbulence duration was observed over the North Atlantic between 1979 and 2020, with moderate turbulence rising by 37% and light turbulence increasing by 17% during this period. Other flight routes have also experienced significant turbulence increases, including those over the US, Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic.
This trend is attributed to increased wind shear in the jet stream, caused by greater temperature differences between the equator and the poles. Turbulence, caused by irregular airflow disruptions, can originate from atmospheric pressure, jet streams, mountain overflights, or storms. Clear-air turbulence, which occurs under clear skies, is particularly concerning due to its unpredictability and invisibility to radar systems.
Isabel Smith, a turbulence researcher at the University of Reading, highlights the projected increase in severe turbulence over time. She attributes this to the rising temperature gap between polar and tropical regions, leading to enhanced wind shear in the jet streams where planes fly. By 2050, summers are expected to become as turbulent as 1950 winters and autumns, according to the research findings.
To mitigate these risks, the researchers recommend investing in improved forecasting and detection systems. The aviation sector, while contributing to global emissions, is also facing other climate-related challenges, including the vulnerability of coastal airport runways to floods, reduced lift due to warmer air, increased lightning strike risks, longer flight times from shifting jet streams, and heightened clear-air turbulence. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is paramount to address these challenges and ensure the safety of air travel in the face of climate change.
Climate Change Fuels Increase in Air Turbulence, Posing Risks to Aviation
