In order to better understand the real-world effects of global warming, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have devised a novel method for quantifying these changes and predicting their long-term consequences. They mapped out how the number of ‘outdoor days’ in various global destinations will fluctuate by 2100 using data from 50 different climate models. These ‘outdoor days’ refer to 24-hour periods when temperatures are pleasant enough for most people to engage in outdoor activities, whether for leisure or work. These days are characterized by moderate temperatures, typically ranging between 10C and 25C, and an absence of extreme weather events. The tool developed by MIT researchers also allows users to define their own temperature range when examining data from their country, reflecting their personal preferences for comfortable weather conditions.
The MIT study projects significant changes in outdoor days, particularly for tropical destinations. The Dominican Republic is likely to lose the most, with 124 fewer days of comfortable weather annually by the end of the century. Mexico, India, Thailand, and Egypt are also projected to lose approximately half of their outdoor days. The study highlights a stark disparity between the Global North and Global South, with the former gaining more comfortable days and the latter losing more, despite contributing less to greenhouse gas emissions. The differences in countries like Bangladesh and Sudan are particularly striking.
North-south disparities are also evident when it comes to outdoor days. Northern regions are likely to experience an increase in comfortable days due to milder winters, while southern regions will see a decrease due to extreme heat during summer months. The Balkans is projected to be one of the most heavily impacted regions in Europe, with Albania losing 30 days, Serbia 26 days, Croatia 22 days, North Macedonia 21 days, Bulgaria 17 days, Kosovo 19 days, and Romania 12 days. Southern European countries like Greece and Italy could lose up to 37 outdoor days annually by 2100 due to extreme heat between May and September, according to the MIT study. The Iberian Peninsula will also experience changes, with Portugal facing a loss of 33 outdoor days and Spain 13. Researchers indicate that these disparities are already being felt in Europe, influencing travel decisions as people seek destinations less affected by extreme heat.
While countries in northern Europe are expected to gain outdoor days due to climate change, the benefits are not without drawbacks. France, Germany, and Austria are projected to gain between 18 and 52 days of comfortable weather by 2100, primarily due to warmer winters. However, this could pose a threat to winter sports and tourism in these regions.
