A chorus of alarm bells has been sounded by 44 of the world’s leading climate scientists, who are calling for urgent action from Nordic policymakers to address a looming threat – the potential collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents. In an open letter published on October 21st, the scientists, led by University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann, paint a grim picture of the risks associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This giant ocean conveyor belt, which includes the Gulf Stream, plays a crucial role in transporting vital heat to the Northern Hemisphere, significantly influencing global weather patterns.
The scientists argue that the AMOC is slowing down at an alarming rate due to global warming and could soon reach a tipping point, leading to catastrophic consequences for the planet. The implications for Nordic countries are particularly severe, as an AMOC collapse would bring about major cooling, extreme weather events, and the expansion of a cold blob already developing over the eastern North Atlantic. These changes would disrupt ecosystems, impact agriculture, and potentially lead to widespread economic and social disruption.
The letter emphasizes that the consequences of an AMOC collapse would extend far beyond the Nordic region, potentially impacting the entire Northern Hemisphere. For example, agriculture in Northwestern Europe could be significantly threatened due to the altered weather patterns, while tropical monsoon systems could shift southward, causing devastating impacts on ecosystems and agricultural production. Additionally, halted ocean currents could lead to rising sea levels along the American Atlantic coast and disrupt marine ecosystems and fisheries.
The scientists express concern over the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s latest report, which states that there is only “medium confidence” that the AMOC will not collapse abruptly before 2100. They argue that this level of confidence is not reassuring, given the potentially catastrophic consequences of such an event. “Even with a medium likelihood of occurrence, given that the outcome would be catastrophic and impacting the entire world for centuries to come, we believe more needs to be done to minimize this risk,” the scientists wrote in the letter.
In their appeal to the Nordic Council of Ministers, the scientists urge policymakers to take the threat of an AMOC collapse seriously and to increase pressure on international partners to stay close to the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to keep average global temperature rise to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels. The scientists emphasize that immediate and decisive action is crucial to mitigate the risks associated with this looming environmental threat. The fate of the AMOC and the stability of Earth’s climate hinges on our collective response to this urgent call for action.