With just a few weeks left before the Kerala electorate has the opportunity to exercise their franchise, the Congress party has set its sights on achieving two significant goals: securing the highest number of seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections while also laying the groundwork for a successful campaign in the 2026 assembly elections.
In their ongoing campaigns, Congress leaders are not only urging their supporters to back the party in all 20 parliamentary constituencies but are also making strategic appeals to voters with an eye toward the 2026 assembly election, openly expressing their ambition to regain power in the state two years from now.
Congress leaders who requested anonymity confided to HT that former party president Rahul Gandhi had specifically instructed his party workers to adopt a “2024 for 2026” approach in their campaign efforts.
Wayanad is Gandhi’s constituency of choice, so it comes as no surprise that he has reportedly assured his constituents that he will return to seek their votes once again. Buoyed by the Congress-led United Democratic Front’s (UDF) impressive victory in the 2019 parliamentary election, where they won 19 out of 20 seats, the Congress is aiming for an encore in 2024, this time with an even more emphatic performance that would bolster their confidence in winning the 2026 assembly elections.
“We are witnessing a positive wave in the state right now, which will undoubtedly build momentum for 2026. Although the issues we will be fighting for then will be different, we view the Lok Sabha election as a crucial curtain-raiser for the upcoming assembly elections,” said Congress leader Hibi Eden, the incumbent Member of Parliament (MP) from the Ernakulam seat.
Two key factors in the state have prompted Congress to set their sights on the 2026 assembly polls. Firstly, there is a growing anti-incumbency sentiment against the Communist Party-led government, which is perceived to have incurred public wrath due to allegations of corruption, mismanagement of funds in cooperative banks, and student violence in academic institutions.
Secondly, the concerns of minority communities about the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) promise to implement the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA) have played a significant role. In an attempt to pacify these loyal voters by promising to repeal the UCC in the state once elected to power in 2026, Gandhi and his team have focused on Kerala with a positive expectation.
“Despite not visiting his constituency regularly over the past five years and rarely mentioning it during his parliamentary discourse, Rahul Gandhi seems to have an easy rapport with the locals in Kerala. He remains the Congress’s trump card in the state, and his assurances are taken seriously,” said NP Chekutty, a political analyst. If the Congress’s tally surpasses its 2019 total of 52 seats, they will automatically become the preferred choice over the LDF in the state election, he added.
The Kerala electorate has consistently alternated between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the UDF in state elections, with only one exception in 2021 when they voted the Left back into power for a second term. In light of this trend, the 2026 state election has received considerable attention in ongoing campaigns.
Three-time MP and former Union minister Shashi Tharoor has been at the forefront of the dialogue for 2026, hinting to his voters that the current parliamentary election could be his last but vowing to continue working for the state, a possible if subtle indication of his chief ministerial aspirations.
Tharoor’s first public statement in this regard was made last year in January to a Malayalam news channel, where he said, “I am ready for the role. But the ultimate decision rests with the people. The responsibility lies with us to find the underlying reasons for the issues faced by Kerala.”
Although he later backtracked on these statements, his declaration continues to draw mixed reactions from his party colleagues. Thiruvananthapuram has shown why they hold Tharoor in such high regard: his perceived clean image, an international reputation that precedes him, and his efforts to shed the label of being a “Delhi Nair.”
Tharoor’s Malabar tour in 2022 was widely seen as an attempt to project himself as a potential chief ministerial candidate, forcing many of his disgruntled colleagues to acknowledge his ability to foresee a Congress wave in the state in the coming years.
Paul Zacharia, a Malayalam writer, and political columnist compared Shashi’s prospects as a chief ministerial candidate against his colleagues. He said, “The Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee Chief K Sudhakaran is embroiled in a money scam and facing intense scrutiny from state investigative agencies. The legislative leader in the assembly, VD Satheesan, is shrewd but will likely have to bear the brunt of the blame if the Congress’s tally falls below 19 seats.”
“That leaves us with KC Venugopal, the Congress general secretary, whose distance from Kerala has not gone down well with the people, and K Muralidharan, former Congress stalwart K Karunakaran’s son, who is battling legacy issues and a poor reputation, with his sister Padmaja Venugopal recently joining the BJP,” Zacharia said.
Zacharia added that a favorable face enhances people’s trust in the party, especially when Gandhi and KC Venugopal have not visited the state frequently in the last five years.
To secure victory in both the parliamentary and subsequent assembly elections, the Congress is working to protect its core vote bank. Upper-class Christians, the Nairs (and the Nair Service Society), and the Muslim interests represented by the Indian Union Muslim League are all being carefully considered.
With the Orthodox Syrian Church Head Fr Baselios Marthoma Mathews III pledging his support openly to the Congress, and the NSS general secretary Sukumaran Nair vowing to stand by Tharoor, the party has been able to convey a strong message to the BJP, which has been making overt attempts to get closer to both influential groups.
The CPI(M) has also been cozying up to the Muslim League as of late, much to the chagrin of the Congress. But Gandhi’s overtures to the IUML and Shashi Tharoor’s cordial relations with the Kanthapuram Moulavi have led the Congress to feel secure about the Muslim vote.
Kanthapuram in Calicut district is where the general secretary of the All India Sunni Jamiyyathil Ulama, or the India Muslim Scholars Association, resides. The current general secretary, AP Aboobacker Musliyar, is known to wield significant influence over the Sunni sect and can impact their voting preferences. In his address during Eid, Moulavi stated that Jamiyyathil Ulama sees merit in supporting the entire INDIA bloc, not just the Congress alone.
Kerala holds strategic importance for the Congress because being the largest party in the Lok Sabha election would significantly increase their chances of forming the government in the third state in southern India. Political analyst Sri Kumar said, “Unlike the BJP, which focuses on multiple regions and states, the Congress deserves credit for concentrating its efforts on one state. After winning Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana last year, Kerala is the next priority.”
All 20 seats in the state will go to the polls on April 26 in the second phase of the general elections.
Deepika Amirapu is a freelance journalist based in Hyderabad. Each week, Southern Lights examines the big story from one of the five states of South India. Discover the complete story of India’s general elections on our exclusive Elections Product! Access all the content absolutely free on the HT App. Download now! Get Current Updates on India News, Elections 2024, Election 2024 Date along with Latest News and Top Headlines from India and around the world.
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