The COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, concluded after a dramatic late-night surge in negotiations, culminating in a significant commitment from wealthy nations to substantially increase climate finance. Initially slated to end on Friday, the summit ran into overtime as delegates from nearly 200 countries grappled with the details of a global climate funding plan for the next decade. This critical agreement centers around a revised pledge of $300 billion annually by 2035, a considerable increase from the previously proposed $250 billion.
The initial $250 billion offer, drafted by Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency, faced immediate and widespread rejection from developing countries, who deemed it far too low to address the escalating costs of climate-related disasters. Sources close to the negotiations revealed that this led to a significant shift in position by several key players. The European Union confirmed its acceptance of the increased $300 billion figure, a decision mirrored by the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, according to multiple sources familiar with the closed-door discussions. While a European Commission spokesperson and an Australian government spokesperson declined to comment directly, the revised commitment represents a major concession.
However, the road to a final agreement remains uncertain. It remains unclear whether developing nations have received official communication of the revised $300 billion offer and if this substantial increase will suffice to secure their support. The intense negotiations highlight a deep chasm between wealthy nations, grappling with constrained domestic budgets, and developing countries bearing the brunt of climate change’s devastating impacts – from intensified storms and floods to prolonged droughts. This new target aims to supersede the previous commitment of $100 billion per year by 2020, a goal that was ultimately achieved two years late (in 2022) and expires in 2025.
The $300 billion figure, however, is just one piece of a complex puzzle. The deal requires consensus on crucial aspects, including the specific countries responsible for contributions, and the balance between grants and loans. The list of contributing nations – encompassing roughly two dozen industrialized countries, including the U.S., European nations, and Canada – stems from a 1992 United Nations climate agreement. European governments, notably, have pushed for broader participation, advocating for contributions from major economies like China and oil-rich Gulf states.
Adding further complexity to the negotiations, the recent election of Donald Trump as U.S. President casts a long shadow over the talks. Given Trump’s past dismissal of climate change as a ‘hoax,’ negotiators from other wealthy nations anticipate a reluctance from the world’s largest economy to contribute to the climate finance goal during his upcoming four-year term. This uncertainty underscores the precarious nature of securing a truly global commitment to climate action.
A broader financial aspiration, involving a total of $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance by 2035 (a sum economists believe is necessary), was included in a draft deal published on Friday. This encompassing goal involves both public and private funding sources. Developing nations have issued strong warnings that a weak finance deal would severely hamper their ability to establish more ambitious targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions. Sierra Leone’s Environment Minister, Jiwoh Abdulai, poignantly highlighted the inadequacy of the initial $250 billion proposal, considering inflation. He expressed deep concern over the lack of progress and emphasized the urgent need for stronger language in the agreement to facilitate access to promised funds. Abdulai also suggested that a withdrawal from negotiations should be considered as a potential option if the agreement does not meet the needs of developing countries. The least developed country grouping at the U.N. talks will present their non-negotiable demands to the COP29 president on Saturday. The final outcome of COP29 remains highly dependent on finding common ground in the coming hours and days.
