As the world grapples with record-breaking heat and the stark reality of climate change, global leaders, climate experts, and activists converge in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29). From November 11th to 22nd, discussions will center around the urgent need to address the climate crisis and ensure a sustainable future for all.
At the heart of these discussions lies the crucial issue of climate finance. The goal is to establish a concrete target for financial support directed towards developing nations. This funding is essential for helping these countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the increasingly severe impacts of climate change. The stakes are high as preliminary data indicates that 2024 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record, surpassing the record set in 2023. This year also marks the first time the globe has experienced more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming compared to the pre-industrial average, according to the European climate agency Copernicus.
While some progress has been made, the global response to climate change remains inadequate. The European Union, along with major historical emitters like the US and UK, has managed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by about one-third since 1990. However, global CO2 emissions have steadily increased from 22.6 million metric tonnes (Mton) in 1990 to 39.02 Mton in 2023, as per UN data. This upward trend highlights the urgent need for greater global cooperation and commitment to ambitious emissions reduction targets.
China’s emissions have significantly increased to 13.2 Mton in 2023, reflecting the country’s growing contribution to global emissions. While China, the US, and India are the largest total CO2 emitters, nations on the Arabian Peninsula lead in per-capita emissions. Data from the European Union shows that Qatar has the highest per-person emissions, followed by Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
Many countries have set longer-term goals of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. In 2023, the EU had reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 34 percent from 1990 levels. However, it is still far from its goal of achieving net-zero by 2050. The EU saw a reduction in GHG emissions across all sectors in 2023 compared to 2022. The power sector witnessed the most significant decline, with emissions dropping by 20.1%. The industrial combustion and processes sector followed closely, with emissions falling by 8.1% from the previous year.
While fossil fuels continue to be a dominant energy source in many countries, there is a notable increase in renewable energy usage worldwide, particularly in regions like Europe, the United States, and China. In the first six months of 2024, renewable sources generated half of the EU’s electricity, surpassing fossil fuels, according to the European Commission.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading international body for the assessment of climate change, has developed five potential future scenarios to model global temperature changes up to 2100, considering factors such as population growth and CO2 emissions.
The most optimistic scenario, SSP1-1.9, predicts a rise of just 1.4°C, achievable through significant emission reductions. However, if greenhouse gas emissions remain at current levels and net-zero is not achieved by 2100, global temperatures could increase by more than 2°C, as projected by SSP2-4.5. The most alarming scenario, SSP5-8.5, predicts a staggering average global temperature increase of 4.4°C, driven by a doubling of current emission levels.
COP29 in Baku serves as a crucial platform for global leaders to take decisive action and address the climate crisis. The success of the conference hinges on concrete commitments to climate finance, ambitious emissions reduction targets, and the development of sustainable solutions for a future that prioritizes both economic prosperity and environmental protection.
