Cuba is once again plunged into darkness, facing severe power blackouts stemming from an outdated infrastructure and acute fuel shortages. The situation, already a pressing concern in recent years, has taken a turn for the worse during the hurricane season, with Hurricane Oscar recently unleashing heavy rains on the island. This stark reality underscores Cuba’s heavy reliance on oil imports to power its aging infrastructure.
The island’s power grid depends on eight aging thermoelectric plants, some dating back almost 50 years. These plants have received minimal maintenance over the past decade, contributing to their declining efficiency. They burn crude oil, much of which is of poor quality, high in sulfur and metals, further hindering the combustion process and necessitating constant repairs. To alleviate the electricity shortage, Cuba has leased several Turkish power-plant ships, aiming to provide up to 20% of the nation’s electricity. However, these ships, too, are reliant on fuel, and Cuba’s dwindling reserves mean they are no longer a viable solution. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that, based on its latest known data, Cuba generated 83% of its electricity using petroleum derivatives in 2022, with renewable energy sources contributing less than 5%. This heavy reliance on fossil fuels has become a major vulnerability in the face of the current crisis.
Cuba produces approximately 40,000 barrels of fuel daily but consumes around 120,000 barrels. This significant deficit was previously bridged by oil imports from Venezuela, with some assistance from Mexico and Russia. However, these imports have dwindled dramatically in recent years. Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, once a lifeline, have plummeted to a third of their previous levels, while Mexico’s and Russia’s contributions remain inconsistent at best.
The blackouts are a stark symptom of a deeper economic crisis gripping Cuba. The country’s GDP contracted by 1.9% in 2023, and forecasts for 2024 predict only a modest 0.5% growth. In response, citizens are fleeing the island in record numbers. The Miami Herald reported that over one million people, roughly 10% of the population, migrated between 2022 and 2023, mainly to the U.S. This period marks the largest migration wave in Cuban history, reducing the population to around 10 million by conservative estimates.
This mass exodus has had a significant impact on the demographics of the U.S., bolstering the American Latino population. According to Politico, the Latino electorate will reach approximately 36.2 million voters this year, up from 32.3 million in 2020. This demographic shift has attracted the attention of both presidential candidates, as its relatively young population (31% under 30, according to Pew Research) presents a reliable voting base for either party.
While the U.S. immigrants are relatively young, the Cuban population on the island is aging rapidly. Birth rates are low, with only 284,000 children born between 2022 and 2023, while the number of deaths reached over 400,000. The combined effect of mass emigration and a declining birth rate has created a demographic time bomb, casting a long shadow over the future of Cuba. Unless the government can implement significant changes to stabilize its socio-economic system, the nation’s long-term prospects appear bleak. For those on the island, the enveloping darkness might symbolize more than just a power outage; it could be a harbinger of a future fraught with challenges and uncertainty.
