The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast for the formation of a cyclone in the north Arabian Sea, off the coast of Gujarat, on August 30th. This cyclone, named Asna, is developing from a deep depression that has brought heavy rainfall to Gujarat over the past three days.
The depression is expected to move westward along the coast of Pakistan and Iran, intensifying into a cyclonic storm within the next 12 hours. This intensification will occur as the depression moves over the northeast Arabian Sea, off the Kutch and adjoining Saurashtra and Pakistan coasts.
Cyclone Asna, named by Pakistan, meaning “the one to be acknowledged or praised” in Urdu, will be the first cyclone to form in August in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region since 1981 and the first in the Arabian Sea since 1976, according to Down To Earth (DTE) citing IMD data.
As of August 29th, the deep depression was situated 60 km northwest of Bhuj and 80 km northeast of Naliya in Gujarat, continuing to bring heavy rainfall to the state.
According to a senior IMD official, the deep depression will find favorable conditions for intensification into Cyclone Asna. The official explained, “The deep depression, which has been sustaining for a few days over Saurashtra, will find even more favorable conditions to intensify into a cyclone over the Arabian Sea. It will get energy from the ocean and get refuelled. Wind shear is low. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is in a favorable position. Circumstances are favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea.”
The formation of the cyclone is attributed to changes in wind patterns during the monsoon season, particularly the moisture drawn from the land and Arabian Sea.
Historically, between 1891 and 2023, only 32 cyclones have occurred in the NIO region during August, with just four forming in the Arabian Sea. This makes Cyclone Asna a significant event in the region’s weather patterns.
