The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a stark warning: Cyclone Fengal, currently a deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal, is rapidly intensifying and expected to make landfall. Within the next 12 hours, the system is projected to transform into a full-blown cyclone, barreling northwestward towards the coast.
The IMD predicts Cyclone Fengal will cross the north Tamil Nadu-Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mahabalipuram around the morning of November 30th. At landfall, it’s anticipated to be a depression with winds ranging from 45-55 kmph, gusting up to 65 kmph. However, the potential for significant damage remains high due to the expected torrential downpours.
The weather bureau forecasts heavy to very heavy rainfall across north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from November 29th to 30th. South coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema are also expected to receive significant precipitation on November 29th. This looming threat underscores a critical concern highlighted by Vishwas Chitale, senior program lead at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW): “The states located on the eastern coast of India are hotspots of compounding risks of hazards such as floods, cyclones, and droughts.” He further emphasizes Tamil Nadu’s vulnerability, noting a doubling of tropical cyclones in the past decade, with 11 out of its 32 districts highly exposed to these devastating weather events.
Despite the risks, Chitale points to Tamil Nadu’s robust early warning systems, including the innovative CFLOWS-Chennai, a web GIS-based decision-support system developed jointly by the Ministry of Earth Sciences and the Tamil Nadu state government. This cutting-edge system integrates data from weather forecast models to provide an unprecedented level of integrated coastal flood warning capability, a first for India.
Preemptive measures are already underway. Schools and colleges in Puducherry have been closed as a precaution, reflecting the seriousness of the situation. Puducherry’s education minister Arumugam Namassivayam confirmed that authorities are on full alert, actively preparing for the cyclone’s impact. The devastation wrought by Cyclone Fengal in Sri Lanka, where 12 lives were lost, approximately 100 homes destroyed, and 335,155 residents displaced, serves as a stark reminder of the potential consequences.
The IMD notes that several parts of India have already experienced rainfall in the past 24 hours, with moderate rainfall in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and isolated precipitation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. Further heavy rainfall is predicted for Kerala, Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka on November 30th and December 1st. Puducherry has already reported significant rainfall, with 7.5 cm in Puducherry and 9.5 cm in Karaikal in the past 24 hours. The state government is actively coordinating efforts, relocating residents from low-lying areas to relief camps and establishing a 24/7 control room. Seafaring vessels are advised to remain in port. The IMD urges residents in affected areas to diligently monitor weather updates and heed all official warnings.
The impact of Cyclone Fengal extends beyond immediate concerns. As the IMD’s warnings highlight, the increasing frequency and intensity of such weather events present significant long-term challenges for India, impacting infrastructure, economies and lives. The ongoing situation underscores the critical need for robust preparedness strategies and continued investment in early warning systems.
