Misinterpretation of EAC-PM Working Paper on Religious Minorities Leads to Sensationalized Claims
Media reports and political rhetoric have misinterpreted and sensationalized findings from the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) working paper titled “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015).” These reports have inaccurately tried to create an impression that the Muslim population in India is growing rapidly and that this threatens the Hindu population.
The working paper itself acknowledges its limitations, stating that the reasons for changes in religious demography are complex and beyond the scope of the paper. Despite this, the paper makes a flawed assertion that the growth in the Muslim population indicates that minorities are thriving in India.
There is no evidence to suggest that an increase in fertility alone indicates a flourishing population. Data and socio-economic development must be considered. Communities with better access to education, health care, and economic opportunities tend to have lower fertility rates. A high population growth rate often highlights shortcomings in human development.
The higher growth rate of India’s Muslim population compared to the Hindu population is a result of the Muslim community lagging behind on many human development indicators. Conversely, a low growth rate or decline in population does not imply persecution or hostility but can reflect improved socio-economic conditions, lower fertility rates, and higher emigration rates.
The EAC-PM study uses the Religious Characteristics of States-Demographic (RCS-DEM) dataset to conduct a cross-country analysis of 167 countries. The RCS-DEM database provides detailed information on the demographic characteristics of various religious groups across countries. The paper analyzes population data from 1950 to 2015.
Explaining the Changes
Changes in the composition of various communities can be explained by examining absolute population increase, changes in proportion, or rate of change in individual shares.
Between 1950 and 2015, India’s Hindu population grew by 701 million, almost five times more than the increase in the Muslim population of 146 million. The proportion of Hindu population fell by 6.64 percentage points, while the proportion of Muslim population increased by 4.25 percentage points.
The EAC-PM study focuses on the rate of change in individual shares. Between 1950 and 2015, there was a decline of 7.8% in the share of the Hindu population and an increase of 43.2% in the share of the Muslim population. However, this is only to be expected statistically, given that in 1950, the proportion of Hindus (84.7%) was much larger than that of Muslims (9.8%).
Examining the rate of change in shares of other religious communities also underscores the misleading nature of these figures. For instance, the rate of change in share shows an increase of 1519.6% for Buddhists and 49.2% for Sikhs, without implying any sinister intent. Similarly, the decline in the rate of change for Parsis’ share, by 86.7%, does not mean they have been targeted or persecuted.
Recent studies and data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) indicate that Muslim fertility rates have declined significantly, suggesting that the projected peak of the Muslim population’s proportion might be even smaller. The delayed figures of the next Census will ultimately confirm these trends.
It is crucial to interpret population data within the context of socio-economic development and to avoid sensationalized claims that fuel divisive narratives.
