As the 2024 presidential election heats up, early voting trends are painting a picture of tight races in key battleground states. In Michigan, record-breaking early voting numbers have emerged, with Republicans showing a significant increase in turnout compared to the 2020 election. This positive trend could be a boon for former President Trump and his Republican allies.
According to Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, “The numbers we are seeing out of Michigan are encouraging for Republicans across the board.” As of now, over 1.2 million voters in Michigan have cast ballots early, shattering previous records for early ballot returns. This surge in Republican participation could be a decisive factor in the state’s outcome.
While early voting numbers offer a glimpse into voter registration, they don’t necessarily reflect the actual candidate preferences. Additionally, there’s still ample time for trends to shift between now and November 5th. It’s important to remember that approximately 17% of the state’s registered voters have already returned their ballots, with another million absentee ballots outstanding.
Data from Target Smart suggests that Democrats are leading in ballot returns, with 53% of returned ballots coming from Democrats, 37% from Republicans, and 10% from other voters. However, Keady emphasizes that the increased Republican turnout is a positive sign for Trump’s campaign. “While Democrats are maintaining their lead in ballot chasing, Republicans are not far behind, and they are outperforming previous election cycles,” Keady remarked, acknowledging that the overall impact of these numbers remains uncertain.
Looking beyond Michigan, Nevada is another critical swing state where the race is expected to be extremely close. Both states are among the seven swing states nationally that allow straight ticket voting, a crucial factor that could significantly influence down-ballot races.
Keady explains, “A key aspect of this election cycle will be straight ticket voting. Nevada and Michigan are the only two swing states – and two out of seven states nationally — that allow straight ticket voting. In places like Michigan where the top of the ticket is outperforming down-ballot races, there is a good chance that straight ticket voting will help Senate, Congressional, and statewide races.”
While early voting data suggests a potential advantage for Democrats, Keady cautions against reading too much into the numbers. He points out that many of Trump’s supporters are likely to be union voters who traditionally lean Democratic but may be shifting their support towards Trump in this election. “It’s important to remember the impact union voters will have on this election,” Keady stated. “Many union members are registered Democrats. Without the union support for Harris, there are going to be a lot of disenchanted union members that switch their votes this year for Republicans.”
With the election approaching, the race in key states like Michigan and Nevada remains incredibly tight. The early voting trends, combined with the impact of straight ticket voting and the potential shift in union voter support, make this election one of the most unpredictable in recent history. The final outcome will hinge on voter turnout, campaign strategies, and the ability of both candidates to mobilize their supporters in the weeks leading up to Election Day.
