Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline president of Iran, has passed away. Raisi, who won the 2021 presidential elections with the lowest-ever voter turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, faced US sanctions for his alleged role in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988. As a close associate of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi held several prominent positions within Iran’s judicial system, including prosecutor general of Tehran and chief justice of the country. Notably, during Raisi’s presidency, Iran significantly increased its uranium enrichment levels to near weapons-grade.
The implications of Raisi’s death are multifaceted. Internally, Iran will focus on maintaining stability. According to news reports, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has been confirmed as the interim president by Ayatollah Khamenei. A panel comprising Mokhber, the speaker of parliament, and the head of the judiciary will organize a new presidential election within 50 days.
Externally, Raisi’s death is unlikely to have a significant impact on Iran’s foreign policy, as the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Supreme Leader ultimately oversee such matters. However, tensions have escalated recently after an attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria, prompting Iran to launch missile strikes on Israel and retaliatory strikes on Iran’s Isfahan province, which houses a uranium enrichment plant. Analysts predict that if Iran elects another hardliner to replace Raisi, these tensions are likely to persist, especially if Tehran perceives growing security threats.
Regarding relations with the West, a hardline successor to Raisi may further strain ties, which have already been strained due to Iran’s nuclear program and support for groups like Hamas and Houthis. Talks between Iran and the West to lift sanctions imposed over Iran’s nuclear program stalled during Raisi’s presidency. India’s ties with Iran have also been impacted by Western sanctions, particularly those affecting financial and oil sectors. Additionally, tensions intensified after the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, who was detained for allegedly wearing a loose headscarf.
