As the 2024 presidential election draws nearer, a sense of economic unease hangs heavy in the air. A recent Gallup poll, released on Friday, paints a stark picture: a majority of Americans feel they are worse off financially than they were four years ago. This sentiment could have significant ramifications for the upcoming election.
The poll, conducted from September 16th to 28th among 1,023 Americans, found that 52% believe they and their families are in a worse financial position today than they were in 2020. Only 39% reported being better off, while a small 9% indicated no change.
These results echo the findings of Gallup’s 1992 poll, a year that saw then-Governor Bill Clinton defeat incumbent President George H.W. Bush. The similarity in these polls suggests that economic anxieties can play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of elections.
The survey also delved into how party affiliation influenced perceptions of economic well-being. A whopping 72% of Democrats said they were better off in 2024 compared to 2020. However, the numbers were significantly lower for independents (35%) and Republicans (a mere 7%).
Gallup’s research highlights a strong correlation between Americans’ sense of economic well-being and their perception of the overall U.S. economy. The organization’s monthly Economic Confidence Index (ECI), which ranges from -100 to +100, currently stands at -26. This indicates a significant lack of confidence, with 39% of Americans stating they were better off financially four years ago.
The ECI has been tracked by Gallup since 1992, reaching its highest point of +56 in January 2000 and its lowest point of -72 in October 2008. Notably, former President Trump’s loss to President Biden in 2020 was attributed by Gallup to the prominence of non-economic factors in voters’ minds.
Despite the relatively low unemployment rates and steady economic growth, Americans are grappling with a persistent sense of economic insecurity. This is largely attributed to the rising inflation that has been plaguing the nation for the past few years.
The Gallup poll found that a staggering 62% of Americans believe the economy is ‘getting worse,’ while only 32% see it ‘getting better.’ Furthermore, a majority (46%) describe their current economic conditions as ‘poor,’ with another 29% labeling them as ‘only fair.’
The 2024 election is likely to hinge on voters’ perceptions of the economy. The Gallup poll, combined with other recent surveys, suggests that the economy remains the paramount issue in the minds of voters. As the race tightens, both campaigns will undoubtedly focus their messaging on addressing the economic anxieties of the American people.