Egypt has delivered its first military aid to Somalia in over four decades, a move that has significantly escalated tensions between the two countries and Ethiopia. This development comes amidst a complex geopolitical situation involving a disputed deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, and the long-standing dispute over Ethiopia’s construction of a massive hydro dam on the Nile River.
The recent escalation began when Ethiopia signed a preliminary agreement with Somaliland, granting it access to coastal land in exchange for potential recognition of its independence from Somalia. The Mogadishu government has vehemently denounced the deal, calling it a violation of its sovereignty and vowing to prevent its implementation by any means necessary.
Egypt, which has been at odds with Ethiopia for years due to the Nile dam construction, has condemned the Somaliland deal. In response, Egypt signed a security pact with Mogadishu earlier this month and offered to send troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
This strategic shift was further solidified with the delivery of Egyptian military aid to Somalia on Tuesday. Two Egyptian military aircraft carrying weapons and ammunition landed at Mogadishu airport, according to diplomats and Somali government officials. This move has been interpreted as a deliberate attempt by Somalia to antagonize Ethiopia and potentially shift the balance of power in the region.
Analysts have expressed concerns about the potential for direct conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia if Egyptian troops are deployed along the Somali-Ethiopian border. While the likelihood of a full-scale war remains low, the possibility of a proxy conflict cannot be discounted.
Ethiopia, in a statement, expressed its disapproval of the arms delivery, accusing Somalia of colluding with external actors to destabilize the region. It underscored its commitment to peace and security in Somalia and emphasized its efforts to resolve differences with Somalia. However, the statement avoided mentioning Egypt directly.
Amidst these escalating tensions, Turkey has been mediating indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland deal. Two rounds of talks have taken place since July, with a third round anticipated next month.
The conflict over Somaliland is deeply rooted in Ethiopia’s need for access to the sea and Somalia’s firm stance on Somaliland’s status as an integral part of Somalia. Despite Somaliland’s de facto autonomy for over 30 years, it has not received international recognition.
