The El Niño event, characterized by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has contributed to the recent surge in global temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that April 2023 was the warmest on record, marking the eleventh consecutive month with elevated sea surface temperatures. Human-induced greenhouse gases have further intensified the situation by trapping additional energy in the atmosphere and ocean.
While El Niño typically brings drier conditions to India, its counterpart, La Niña, is associated with abundant monsoon rainfall. The WMO прогнозує a 50% chance of neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August, increasing to 60% and 70% in the subsequent months. This shift is crucial for India’s agricultural sector, as 52% of its cultivated land depends on monsoon rains. The monsoon also plays a vital role in replenishing water reservoirs and supporting power generation.
The WMO’s forecast of La Niña conditions aligns with earlier predictions by the Indian Meteorological Department, which anticipated above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. This transition is expected to provide relief from the extreme heat experienced in South Asia, including India and Pakistan, during April and May.
