El Niño, which began in June 2023 and has resulted in insufficient rainfall and water scarcity in parts of India and Asia, is expected to transition to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral next month. The cooler phase, La Niña, may develop as early as June-August or by July-September, according to the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US.
The oscillation between El Niño and La Niña has significant implications for farmers in India and globally. La Niña typically brings above normal rainfall, potentially leading to flooding during the four-month monsoon season that begins in June.
NOAA stated, “A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance)”.
El Niño, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon occurs every 2-7 years and can last for 9-12 months, influencing global weather patterns.
La Niña, meaning “little girl”, is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same regions. It occurs every 3-5 years and can occasionally happen in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns. La Niña generally tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also adds confidence to the prediction of La Niña developing later this year.
According to the US weather agency, “We’ve seen a quick switch from El Nino to La Nina several times before in our 1950-present record, especially after a strong El Nino. This tendency is one source of confidence in the prediction that La Nina will develop later this year”.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates above-average rainfall during the latter half of the June-September monsoon season, as El Niño is expected to transition to neutral and La Niña conditions are likely to set in by August-September.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had earlier indicated that El Niño could cause above-normal temperatures across most land regions until May, resulting in reduced rainfall and potential drought conditions.
The southwest monsoon season is crucial for India’s economy, accounting for nearly 75% of the country’s annual rainfall. It plays a vital role in agriculture, replenishing reservoirs and aquifers, and meeting power demand.
Over half of India’s arable land is rain-fed, and agriculture remains among the biggest employment generators. Prolonged dry periods and insufficient rainfall can adversely affect crop yields, as seen in the 2023-24 crop year, where food grain production decreased by 1.4% to 309.38 million tonnes. This drop in output has led to increased food prices and government intervention, such as export bans on rice and onions and regulated retail sales of essential food items.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion will be held on 13 June.
