The escalating tensions in West Asia have thrust the fate of Esmail Qaani, the Commander of the Quds Force within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), into the spotlight. Qaani, a prominent figure in Iran’s foreign operations, embarked on a trip to Lebanon shortly after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike last month. While Iranian media has maintained a tight-lipped stance on his whereabouts, reports from Turkish and Israeli news outlets have raised concerns about his potential demise. Even The New York Times, citing unnamed IRGC officials, has covered the speculation surrounding Qaani’s possible death.
Born in Mashhad, a conservative Shi’ite Muslim religious city in northeastern Iran, Qaani, 67, is a seasoned veteran of the Revolutionary Guards, having served during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. After the death of Qassem Soleimani, the previous head of the Quds Force, in a US drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020, Qaani assumed leadership of Iran’s overseas operations. He managed Tehran’s paramilitary allies throughout West Asia, as well as in other regions globally.
Qaani’s leadership style, however, has been contrasted with that of Soleimani. While Soleimani commanded widespread respect and maintained close relationships with Iran’s allies in the Arab world, Qaani has yet to fully fill those shoes. His rise to power has been a gradual one, serving as deputy commander of the Quds Force since 1997, when Soleimani took over as the Force’s chief commander.
Following Soleimani’s assassination, Qaani vowed to expel US forces from West Asia as retribution. “We promise to continue martyr Soleimani’s path with the same force… and the only compensation for us would be to remove America from the region,” state radio quoted Qaani as saying ahead of Soleimani’s funeral in Tehran.
Qaani’s experience extends beyond Iran’s eastern borders, encompassing operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Notably, unlike Soleimani, who was fluent in Arabic, Qaani does not speak the language, potentially hindering his communication with Iraqi militias and Hezbollah commanders. He has also adopted a more discreet public persona than Soleimani, with limited information available about him online or in leaked diplomatic cables. Qaani’s preference for discretion is evident in his approach to meetings and visits to neighboring countries, which he conducts in private.
Qaani’s disappearance has fueled concerns about his safety. Reports indicate that he traveled to Beirut to convene with Hezbollah officials in the wake of the Israeli strikes on the organization. Since the strikes in Beirut last week, he has not been heard from. Reuters, citing two senior Iranian security officials, revealed that Qaani was in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Dahiyeh, during an Israeli strike that was reported to have targeted Nasrallah’s presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine. Safieddine, too, has been reported as unreachable following the strikes.
While Qaani was seen in Hezbollah’s Tehran offices two days after Nasrallah’s assassination, his absence was noted during the Friday prayers of Hezbollah’s chief, led by Iran’s Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Speculation about Qaani’s fate has reached fever pitch, with some reports claiming that he may have been the target of increased surveillance due to fears of Israeli operations after Iran’s missile strikes on October 1.
Israeli news outlets have fueled the rumors further. N12 news reported that Qaani might have been wounded in the Israeli strike. Channel 12, another Israeli news outlet, claimed that while Lebanese authorities confirmed Qaani’s death, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have not confirmed this.
Saudi news channels have added another layer of intrigue, suggesting that the Iranian commander might have been executed by Iran on suspicion of collaborating with Israel’s spy agency, Mossad.
In response to inquiries about reports of Qaani’s potential death in an Israeli strike, Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani stated that the results of the strikes were still being assessed. He confirmed that Israel had launched an attack last week against Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Beirut. “When we have more specific results from that strike, we will share it. There’s a lot of questions about who was there and who was not,” he told reporters.
A Hezbollah official disclosed that Israel was impeding the search for Safieddine after bombing Beirut’s southern suburbs on Thursday. The officials stated that the group would only announce Safieddine’s fate once the search concluded.
Significantly, Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan perished with Nasrallah in his bunker when it was hit by Israeli bombs on September 27.
The possibility of Qaani’s death would represent a substantial setback for Iran and a significant victory for Israel, which vowed to retaliate following Iran’s missile attack last week. Experts believe that Qaani’s demise would weaken Tehran’s military capabilities significantly while further escalating tensions in the conflict.
Qaani’s disappearance comes as Israel’s military announced on Saturday that its forces had killed over 400 Hezbollah fighters since launching ground operations in southern Lebanon. One of the most intense raids saw Israel conducting 11 consecutive strikes on Beirut. “Since the beginning of the (ground) manoeuvre, forces have eliminated some 440 terrorists from the ground and from the air, including 30 commanders of various ranks,” military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised briefing.
The mystery surrounding Qaani’s whereabouts and the potential implications of his death continue to cast a shadow over the already volatile situation in West Asia. The coming days will likely bring further developments, with the world watching closely to see how this unfolds.
