Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reignited discussions about expanding the European Union (EU), particularly the inclusion of Ukraine. However, the entry of poorer candidate countries like Ukraine poses significant economic challenges for the bloc.
Poland, an EU member since 2004, has become a major food producer within the bloc. Polish farmers express concerns that Ukraine’s entry, with its larger industrial farms and cheaper products, could threaten their livelihoods and lead to bankruptcy.
Admitting all current candidate countries would cost the EU an estimated €256 billion, with Ukraine alone projected to receive €186 billion. The EU’s budget already allocates significant funds to regional development and agriculture, and the addition of poorer members would further strain these resources.
Despite these economic concerns, some EU member states are pushing ahead with the accession process at an accelerated pace. However, the ultimate success of enlargement will depend on the future composition of the EU and its ability to address the financial implications.
For countries like Montenegro in the Western Balkans, EU membership holds the promise of economic improvement and increased legitimacy. Montenegro, the country furthest ahead in the accession queue, believes EU membership would boost investor confidence and provide a stamp of approval for businesses.
While admitting Western Balkan countries would bring economic opportunities to many, these countries have faced prolonged delays in their accession processes. North Macedonia, for example, has been a candidate for over two decades.
Ukraine’s potential entry into the EU presents a particularly complex challenge due to its size, agricultural sector, and wartime status. Its reconstruction needs alone are estimated at €500 billion.
If Ukraine were to join the EU, it would become the bloc’s largest agricultural producer, adding 41 million hectares of arable land to the EU’s current 157 million hectares. This could have significant implications for existing member states like Poland, which has become reliant on EU subsidies for its agricultural sector.
The EU is currently considering various options to address the financial impact of enlargement, including contributions from member states, raising new EU revenue, or implementing new taxes such as a plastic tax or carbon adjustment mechanisms.
The success of EU enlargement hinges on finding a balance between geopolitical concerns, economic realities, and the long-term sustainability of the bloc.
