In a powerful display of solidarity, the European Union’s newly appointed top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, and the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, arrived in Kyiv on Sunday. Their visit, symbolic in its timing coinciding with their first day in office, underscored the EU’s continued commitment to supporting Ukraine in its ongoing struggle against Russia’s relentless invasion.
“We came to deliver a clear message: We stand with Ukraine, and we will continue providing our full support,” Costa stated to accompanying media outlets, including AFP. This trip marks a crucial moment for the EU’s new leadership team, demonstrating their unwavering resolve to back Kyiv at a critical juncture, almost three years into the devastating conflict.
However, the future of this support remains uncertain. The looming possibility of a Donald Trump presidency in the United States has raised serious questions about the continuation of significant US aid to Ukraine. Fears are growing that a Trump administration might pressure Kyiv into making substantial concessions to achieve a swift peace deal, even if that means accepting unfavorable terms.
Adding to the already precarious situation, tensions have dramatically escalated. Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued chilling threats to strike government buildings in Kyiv with his newly developed Oreshnik missile, following its inaugural deployment against Ukraine last month. Putin claims this escalation is a direct response to Ukraine’s use of American and British missiles, which have been authorized for attacks within Russian territory. He has also issued threats against the nations supplying this weaponry.
As winter sets in, Russia continues its merciless attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, inflicting widespread devastation. On the front lines, Ukrainian forces, weary from protracted fighting, are losing ground to Russia’s relentless offensive. “The situation in Ukraine is extremely grave,” Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister, emphasized. “But it’s clear that this war comes at a very high cost for Russia as well.”
The EU’s top officials, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are scheduled to hold crucial talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky, in a move seemingly aimed at shaping the parameters of any future peace negotiations, recently called upon NATO to offer security guarantees for Ukrainian territories under Kyiv’s control to “halt the active phase of the war.” He hinted that he would then be willing to wait for the eventual return of territories seized by Russia. “If we discuss a ceasefire,” Zelensky stated to Britain’s Sky News, “we need guarantees that Putin won’t return.”
Kallas stressed that “the strongest security guarantee is NATO membership.” However, she acknowledged the difficulties, explaining that “we need to discuss this – if Ukraine decides to draw a line somewhere, how can we secure peace so Putin doesn’t advance further.” NATO diplomats indicate that granting Ukraine membership soon is unlikely due to significant opposition from several members concerned about potential entanglement in a war with Russia.
Regarding the deployment of European troops to enforce a ceasefire, Kallas advocated for “strategic ambiguity,” stating that the EU “shouldn’t rule out anything.” This cautious approach reflects the complex geopolitical landscape and the significant risks involved.
Trump’s skepticism towards continued US aid for Ukraine, coupled with his calls for increased European contributions, adds another layer of complexity. Europe has collectively spent approximately $125 billion supporting Ukraine since the 2022 invasion, while the United States has provided over $90 billion, according to the Kiel Institute’s tracker. Kallas indicated the EU would employ “transactional language” to convince Trump that supporting Kyiv aligns with US interests, stressing that “Aid for Ukraine is not charity. A Russian victory would undoubtedly embolden China, Iran, and North Korea.”
The new EU foreign policy chief affirmed the bloc’s commitment to strengthening Ukraine’s position, whenever Kyiv deems it opportune to negotiate with Moscow. However, she acknowledged the increasing challenges faced by the 27-nation EU in achieving consensus on bolstering support for Ukraine. “This war has been going on for a long time, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to explain to our citizens,” she admitted. “But I don’t see any other option.”
