The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the week trading around 1.1170, exhibiting stability despite earlier momentum favoring the US dollar. Early in the week, the dollar experienced its most significant surge since early June, fueled by market anticipation of insights from key Federal Reserve policymakers. However, the anticipated data failed to materialize, leaving the dollar’s trajectory largely uninfluenced by concrete news. Instead, subtle market expectations regarding future Fed actions on interest rates appeared to drive movements.
Fed spokeswoman Adriana Kugler voiced support for the recent decision to implement a half-percentage point rate cut but remained non-committal about future monetary policy directions. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned against rushing rate reductions, suggesting that the Fed has the luxury of time before making further adjustments. These mixed signals from Fed officials underscore a lack of consensus among fiscal policymakers, reflecting the complex nature of current economic conditions.
Despite its initial gains this month, the US dollar faced a downturn towards the week’s end, marking its third consecutive day of declines—a pattern extending into a fourth session.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair found support at 1.1121 and subsequently formed a growth wave peaking at 1.1188. Currently, the market is shaping a broad consolidation pattern around 1.1155. Today’s analysis suggests a potential continuation of the growth wave towards 1.1222, followed by a retest of 1.1155 from above. If successful, the range could expand further to 1.1290.
The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing upwards, indicating that growth potential remains robust. The hourly chart, after completing a growth phase to 1.1164 and a correction to 1.1125, the market initiated another upward impulse to 1.1188. Currently, a corrective move to 1.1150 is underway. Upon reaching this level, the potential for a new growth wave to 1.1189 will be evaluated. A breakthrough above this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend towards 1.1222. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and poised to drop towards 20, suggesting a temporary pullback before further gains.
