European cities are facing a monumental challenge to meet the European Union’s ambitious Green Deal emissions targets by 2025. According to a groundbreaking study, “Cost and Benefit of the Urban Mobility Transition,” conducted by EIT Urban Mobility, these cities will require a staggering €1.5 trillion investment in sustainable mobility measures.
The study, which will be presented at the Tomorrow.Mobility World Congress (TMWC) on November 6th, examines three transition scenarios across twelve diverse European city prototypes. It reveals that while technological advancements alone can achieve a 21% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, achieving the Green Deal goals necessitates far more ambitious measures.
The research highlights that the most effective pathway to meet the 2030 Green Deal target involves a 44% reduction in emissions, requiring a significant shift in public acceptance and behavior change. This transition will necessitate a multi-pronged approach, focusing on attractive public transport, shared mobility options, and access restrictions such as low-emission zones. These measures could lead to a 7% increase in public transport ridership and a 16% reduction in private car trips by 2030.
Looking ahead, the study projects that all three scenarios analyzed will achieve the Green Deal’s decarbonisation goals for the transport sector by 2050. This will be achieved through continued technological advancements, vehicle fleet renewals, and a comprehensive implementation of 39 different measures, including subsidized fleet renewals, deployment of Low Emission Zones and Limited Traffic Zones, Road Charging, Shared Mobility, and Car-free days.
However, meeting these ambitious targets comes with a significant price tag. The study estimates that achieving the GHG emission reduction set in the EU’s Green Deal for 2050 will require at least an additional €1.5 trillion in investments over that period, including €500 billion for implementing and managing sustainable mobility measures.
Beyond emission reductions, the research points to significant public health benefits associated with the transition towards more active modes of transport. A shift towards walking and cycling could lead to cumulative health savings of up to €1,170 per capita by 2050. This shift will also bring about improvements in road safety, with potential reductions in road traffic fatalities by up to 70% by 2050.
The study underscores that, regardless of a European city’s characteristics, prioritizing public transportation is crucial for a fair and sustainable urban mobility transition. Public transportation offers an ideal compromise between CO2 emission reductions and investments, and importantly, serves as the only inclusive mobility option for all segments of the population.
