A small spark can ignite a great fire, and in the volatile West Asian region, exploding pagers and walkie-talkies have become the latest fuel for a potential conflagration. The hope for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has been dashed following a series of devastating attacks in Lebanon, leaving over 30 people dead and nearly 3,000 injured. These attacks have prompted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to declare that Israel has crossed “all red lines” and vow a fierce retaliation. Experts and analysts believe these events could be a prelude to a full-scale Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.
The escalating tensions began on Tuesday when pagers used by Hezbollah members detonated in various locations in Lebanon and Syria. This attack, attributed to Israel, resulted in the deaths of at least 12 people, including two young children, and left thousands injured. Graphic videos of the aftermath circulated on social media, showing the devastating impact of the explosions. The Lebanese government and Hezbollah swiftly blamed Israel, accusing the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and Mossad of carrying out the attacks. Questions swirled about how Israel managed to pull off this audacious operation, with some reports suggesting Israel had infiltrated the supply chain of the pagers and inserted explosive material with remote triggers.
The following day, Lebanon was shaken by a second attack, this time involving walkie-talkies that exploded in the suburbs of Beirut and the south of the country. This incident resulted in at least 20 deaths and 450 injuries. The attacks have been widely seen as a major blow to Hezbollah, highlighting the vulnerability of its supply chains and demonstrating Israel’s ability to strike deep within its territory.
Responding to the attacks, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a fiery speech, acknowledging the unprecedented blow suffered by his organization but vowing unwavering resistance and a “just punishment”. He declared that a “reckoning” would come, but provided little detail about its nature or timing, emphasizing the sensitive and crucial stage of the conflict. This speech, his first since the 2006 war with Israel, came as Lebanese residents grapple with the fear that even everyday devices could be used as weapons.
While Nasrallah was speaking, Israeli warplanes were reported to be breaking the sound barrier over Beirut. Israel subsequently announced that it was continuing its airstrikes, claiming to have destroyed “approximately 100 launchers and additional terrorist infrastructure sites, consisting of approximately 1,000 barrels”. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that Israel had struck the south of Lebanon at least 52 times. These strikes come alongside Israel’s declaration of a “new phase” in its conflict with Hezbollah, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that Hezbollah will pay an “increasing price” for its actions. He also emphasized Israel’s goal of ensuring the safe return of its northern communities to their homes.
To bolster its military presence, Israel has deployed its 98th Division, comprising approximately 10,000 to 20,000 troops, to northern Israel. This division played a key role in the Israeli army’s operations in Khan Younis during the conflict with Hamas. These actions suggest that Israel is preparing for a more significant offensive against Hezbollah.
Observers of the conflict, which began in October 2022 with Hamas’s attack on Israel, see these developments as signs of a larger war brewing. Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi (retired) asserted that Israel’s actions indicate a preparedness for war, stating that they would not have engaged in such attacks without being ready for a larger conflict. While the specifics of Israel and Hezbollah’s next moves remain unclear, some believe that Israel will launch a ground invasion of Lebanon to root out Hezbollah from its strongholds. However, the Times of Israel notes that the IDF has not yet fully defeated the smaller Hamas enemy, suggesting that a prolonged war in Lebanon, with a tired reserve force and a strained home front, could lead to further frustration and a worsening situation.
The potential for a wider war is a cause for concern. Hezbollah, facing a strong sense of humiliation, is expected to retaliate, as experts like Nicholas Blanford from the Atlantic Council predict. Such a scenario could draw in allies on both sides, escalating the conflict to a larger scale. While cooler heads might prevail, the current situation paints a grim picture for the future, with the potential for devastating consequences for Israel, Lebanon, and the entire region. The region waits with bated breath, hoping for a peaceful resolution but preparing for the worst.
