The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to win the state election in Brandenburg on Sunday, a significant development that could mark a turning point in German politics. This potential victory would solidify the AfD’s growing influence in eastern Germany, a region grappling with economic challenges, immigration anxieties, and the fallout from the ongoing Ukraine war. The party’s success is a direct challenge to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), who have historically dominated Brandenburg politics.
The AfD’s rise to prominence is a reflection of the political climate in eastern Germany, where concerns over economic stagnation, immigration, and the war in Ukraine are particularly acute. The party is capitalizing on these anxieties, promising a shift in direction and appealing to voters disillusioned with the current government.
A victory for the AfD would be a major embarrassment for the SPD, which has governed Brandenburg since reunification in 1990. It would also raise further questions about Scholz’s leadership and the SPD’s ability to win the 2025 federal election. The party’s current popularity is at an all-time low, and Scholz has been criticized for his handling of the current political landscape.
The election outcome is expected to be close, with recent polls showing the AfD and SPD neck-and-neck. Brandenburg’s popular SPD Premier Dietmar Woidke, who has distanced himself from Scholz, has sought to highlight economic successes during his tenure, including the opening of a Tesla factory and the development of Brandenburg Airport. However, his efforts to focus on local achievements haven’t been enough to fully offset the growing appeal of the AfD.
The AfD’s potential victory also highlights the fragility of Scholz’s three-party coalition government at the national level. The Free Democrats and the Greens, Scholz’s junior coalition partners, are struggling to maintain their support base and may face difficulties in the upcoming federal election. The AfD’s success could further erode the coalition’s authority and potentially lead to a change in government.
The Brandenburg election is a crucial test for the SPD and Chancellor Scholz. A victory for the AfD would be a major setback for the party, further solidifying the AfD’s position as a dominant force in eastern Germany and raising questions about the future of the Social Democrats’ leadership. The outcome will have significant implications for German politics and potentially impact the national political landscape in the lead-up to the 2025 federal election.
