FIFA is shaking things up for European qualification for the 2026 World Cup, introducing a more complex draw system that prioritizes the UEFA Nations League over traditional FIFA rankings. This new approach will mean teams will have to wait until March 2023 to find out their full slate of opponents.
The 12 qualifying groups will be seeded based on the results of the UEFA Nations League, with the eight quarterfinalists from the top tier (League A) and the four highest-ranked teams outside the top eight being assigned as the top seeds. This means that the draw, scheduled for December, will only use placeholder names for the top seeds, as the Nations League competition will still be ongoing.
This system, outlined by FIFA in a briefing note to UEFA member federations, offers a chance for lower-ranked teams like Hungary, Israel, Scotland, and Bosnia-Herzegovina to improve their seeding based on their Nations League performance. However, it also provides a direct path to a top seed for the top-ranked European teams like France, Spain, England, and Belgium. England, despite being demoted to League B in the Nations League, currently holds the third highest ranking in Europe and will benefit from this system.
The top team in each of the 12 groups will automatically qualify for the 2026 World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Four additional teams will qualify through a playoff system in March 2026.
The qualification process is more complex than ever before due to the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams, meaning Europe will have 16 participants. This has led to 12 qualifying groups instead of the previous 10, with groups consisting of either five or four teams.
The four-team groups, with each team playing only six games, will begin in September 2024. The smaller group sizes have allowed UEFA to introduce knockout and playoff rounds in the multi-tier Nations League competition, which will culminate in a Final Four mini-tournament in June. Teams participating in the Final Four will be ineligible to play World Cup qualifying games in June and will be drawn into four-team groups to begin playing in September 2024.
FIFA is expected to finalize the details of the World Cup qualifying draw this week, making this the most complex European qualifying process in history. With its emphasis on the UEFA Nations League and the expansion of the World Cup, the 2026 qualifying cycle promises to be an exciting and unpredictable journey for European teams.
