France’s tense election campaign has been put on hold on Saturday, the eve of the final vote. However, the traditional pause ahead of Sunday’s second round runoff does little to quell the anxieties surrounding a potential stalemate and stagnation in France, a major European power and a pillar of the European Union. Final opinion polls released on Friday suggest that far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) will fall short of an outright majority in the National Assembly. However, President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap elections to force a choice between his centrist path and the extremes of the left and right has not yielded the desired outcome. He now faces the final three years of his presidency without a clear ruling majority, potentially leaving Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to manage a caretaker government.
According to pollsters Ipsos and Ifop, the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN could secure between 170 and 210 seats in the National Assembly, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. The Ipsos Talan poll, conducted for Le Monde, Radio France, and France Televisions, places the RN slightly ahead of the left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, with an estimated 145 to 175 seats. Meanwhile, Macron’s centrist allies are projected to secure only 118 to 148 seats, significantly less than the 250 they held in the outgoing parliament. The possibility of a fragmented parliament means that French voters may wake up on Monday morning with no clear indication of who will be able to form and lead a government. It remains uncertain whether a weakened Attal will be able to maintain a caretaker role.
Le Pen maintains that she is on track for victory and an absolute majority, which would compel Macron to appoint her 28-year-old lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister. “Either the RN wins an absolute majority and I can, from Sunday, embark on my project to rebuild … or the country is blocked,” warned Bardella on Thursday. Attal, for his part, has pledged to stay on “as long as necessary” in a caretaker capacity, while Macron’s office explores various options to preserve some form of government. While Macron will remain in office until the next presidential and legislative elections in April 2027, he now faces the prospect of sharing power with political adversaries.
The potential for France to form its first far-right government since World War II has caused consternation among its European allies, who are already bewildered by Macron’s bold gamble on a snap poll. Even if the RN falls short of a majority, as current polls predict, France is set to enter uncharted political waters as it prepares to host the Olympic Games in Paris. In an attempt to counter the rise of the far right observed in the first round of voting on June 30, centrist and left-wing parties have forged polling pacts for the second round. Le Pen has denounced this move as a scheme to steal victory “against the will of the people” by creating what she terms a “single party” to protect the political establishment. However, it is unclear how many voters whose preferred candidates dropped out in the first round, paving the way for a clear contest against the RN, will be motivated to turn out on Sunday.
With so much uncertainty surrounding the outcome, tensions are escalating. Over 50 candidates and campaign activists have been physically assaulted during the four-week campaign, the shortest in modern French history. Approximately 30,000 police officers will be deployed this weekend to prevent any potential unrest. French stocks remained stable on Friday, with investors anticipating the far right’s failure to secure an absolute majority. However, analysts anticipate turbulence should the RN attempt to implement its costly economic program, which includes reversing Macron’s hard-won pension reforms.
