The spectacular closing ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympics on August 11th left France basking in the glow of a successful Games. However, as the Olympic flame was extinguished, French President Emmanuel Macron faced the stark reality of returning to a nation grappling with political deadlock and unresolved economic crises.
The Games served as a much-needed respite from the political stalemate that has gripped France. Macron, who had declared a “political truce” on July 23rd to focus on the Olympics, relished these moments of national unity. “All those who didn’t believe in the Games were wrong,” he remarked to French newspaper L’Equipe after the closing ceremony, highlighting the French people’s “capacity for enthusiasm and emotion.”
But the period of relative calm was always destined to be short-lived. The snap legislative elections held just weeks before the Olympics, a bold political gamble by Macron, resulted in a hung parliament. The elections left France with three major political blocs – Macron’s centrist coalition, the left-wing alliance, and the far-right National Rally – none of which could command an overall majority. The former governing coalition lost 73 seats, significantly weakening Macron’s ability to push through his agenda.
One of the most pressing issues Macron now faces is the appointment of a new prime minister capable of navigating this fractured political landscape. Despite weeks of consultations at the Fort de Brégançon, the presidential holiday residence, Macron has yet to make a decision. Several names have been floated as potential candidates, including Xavier Bertrand, Michel Barnier, Bernard Cazeneuve, and Jean-Louis Borloo. However, Macron has remained tight-lipped about his intentions, keeping both allies and opponents in the dark.
The timing of the appointment is crucial. Some in Macron’s camp advocate for a swift announcement, possibly as early as the week of August 19th, to allow the new government to tackle the pressing issue of the 2025 budget.
France, recently placed under an excessive deficit procedure by the European Commission, must present a medium-term financial plan by September 20th. Finalizing the budget by the end of September and submitting it to the Assemblée Nationale by the first Tuesday in October requires a government in place as soon as possible. Whoever is chosen as the new prime minister will inherit a challenging in-tray, with the budget being the most immediate concern.
France is under significant pressure from the European Commission and bond markets to reduce its deficit, a task that will require careful negotiation and consensus-building in a fragmented parliament. Eric Coquerel, the leftist head of the finance committee in parliament, issued a stark warning: “If Macron tries to name a sort of rightist government, he will get no budget.”
The budget crisis is not just a domestic issue; it has significant implications for France’s standing in Europe. Failure to present a credible medium-term financial plan could result in further penalties from the European Commission, undermining France’s economic stability.
Macron’s entourage hopes to leverage the success of the Olympics, which were organized under a centrist president, a Socialist mayor, and a conservative regional leader, as a model of what France can achieve when different sides come together.
The Paris Olympics were more successful than anyone could have imagined. They transformed the city into an oasis of smiles and unity, offering a moment of national pride in a country that had been mired in political and social turmoil. The Games saw athletes from diverse backgrounds compete and win, reflecting the multiculturalism that has become a defining feature of modern France.
But the success of the Games, while a triumph for France, may not be enough to solve the deep-seated issues facing the country. The political deadlock that existed before the Games has not disappeared, and Macron’s approval ratings remain stubbornly low, hovering well below 30 per cent.
Macron’s critics, including far-right leader Marine Le Pen and leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, were largely muted during the Games but are likely to resume their attacks now that the Olympic truce has ended.
As Macron retreats to the Fort de Brégançon for further reflection, the path forward remains unclear. The Olympic success has given Macron a temporary boost in popularity, but the underlying issues remain unresolved. The truce may be over, but the real battle for France’s political future has only just begun.
As the nation wakes up from the Olympic dream, it must now confront the harsh realities of its political and economic challenges. Whether Macron can rise to the occasion remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the coming months will be a defining moment in his presidency.
