As France gears up for the decisive second round of its snap general election on July 7, the far-right National Rally (RN) stands on the cusp of an unprecedented breakthrough. The party, led by Marine Le Pen, has defied expectations and secured 33% of the vote in the first round, placing it closer to power than ever before. This remarkable achievement marks a significant shift in French politics, considering the RN’s long-standing reputation as a pariah due to its anti-immigrant and eurosceptic stance.
The first round results painted a contrasting picture, with the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing alliance, garnering 28% of the vote. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together bloc trailed behind with 21%. Celebrating the RN’s victory, Marine Le Pen declared, “This is a historic moment for our party. The French people have shown their desire for change and for policies that put France first.”
This election outcome represents a crucial setback for Macron, who had called for the snap election following his party’s defeat in the European Parliament elections. With the RN poised to potentially form a government, France faces a pivotal moment that could fundamentally redefine its political landscape and its role within the European Union.
France’s two-round electoral system, designed to ensure broad support for elected representatives, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. In the first round, a candidate needs to secure more than 50% of the votes cast and represent at least 25% of registered voters to win a seat in the National Assembly. However, this is a rare occurrence, with only 80 candidates achieving this feat in the 2024 election due to an exceptionally high turnout of 67%.
If no candidate meets these criteria, the top two candidates, along with any others receiving at least 12.5% of the registered vote, advance to the second round. The candidate securing the most votes in the second round wins the seat. This system historically favors larger parties and can lead to disproportionate representation.
The 2024 election is characterized by a record number of three-way contests, known as “triangular” races, potentially affecting half of the assembly’s seats. These races, driven by a high turnout and reduced number of candidates (4,011 compared to 6,290 in 2022), introduce an element of unpredictability. The presence of three or more candidates can split the vote, often benefiting the party with the largest share from the first round, which in this case is the RN.
In past elections, mainstream parties have adopted a strategy called the “Republican front,” forming alliances to block the RN. This involved parties withdrawing their candidates in favor of the best-placed rival candidate to prevent an RN victory. However, this strategy has been losing its effectiveness, as voters increasingly show reluctance to support parties with conflicting policies.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left France Unbowed (LFI) and part of the NFP alliance, has pledged to withdraw NFP candidates in constituencies where the RN leads and an NFP candidate occupies third place. “We must do everything to prevent the far-right from winning,” Mélenchon stated.
Macron’s coalition has been less definitive in its strategy. While French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal emphasized, “Not one single vote must go to the National Rally,” some candidates from Macron’s bloc may not withdraw if confronted with an LFI candidate. Polls have revealed a disparity in voter willingness to block the RN, with 87% of NFP voters expressing support for this strategy, compared to 62% of Together voters. This fluid and complex voter behavior and party alliances will be crucial in determining the outcome of the second round.
The term “cohabitation” refers to a unique situation in the French political system where the president and the prime minister belong to different political parties, often leading to a divided government. This occurs when the president’s party lacks a majority in the National Assembly, forcing the president to appoint a prime minister from the majority party.
France has experienced cohabitation three times in its modern history: From 1986 to 1988 under President François Mitterrand (Socialist) and Prime Minister Jacques Chirac (Conservative). From 1993 to 1995 under President Mitterrand and Prime Minister Édouard Balladur (Conservative). From 1997 to 2002 under President Jacques Chirac (Conservative) and Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (Socialist). During cohabitation, the prime minister leads the government and implements policies, while the president retains significant influence over foreign policy, European affairs, and defence. As political historian Jean Garrigues told AP, “In case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister, but the president can still influence foreign policy and defence.”
If the RN or another political force secures a majority, Macron would be compelled to enter into cohabitation, appointing a prime minister from the majority party. Jordan Bardella, a potential RN prime minister, stated, “I intend to be a cohabitation prime minister who is respectful of the Constitution and of the President of the Republic’s role but uncompromising about the policies we will implement.” Bardella indicated that an RN-led government would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine and delivering long-range missiles capable of striking Russia, significantly diverging from Macron’s policies.
The second round on July 7 will be pivotal in shaping the future political landscape of France. If the RN secures a majority, France will witness its first far-right government since World War II. This would have a profound impact on France’s domestic policies and its role in the EU, considering the RN’s stance against further EU integration and its stringent immigration policies.
If no party achieves a majority, Macron could face cohabitation or attempt to form a broad coalition, a scenario considered unlikely given the political divergences. Another option could involve appointing a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, which would require acceptance by a majority in the National Assembly. Attal expressed hope for building “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “Republican forces” from the centre-left and centre-right.
Experts believe that the Constitution of the 5th Republic is flexible enough to handle these complex circumstances, although the population’s acceptance of the situation remains uncertain. The far-right RN is poised for a substantial victory, but strategic withdrawals and voter alliances in the second round will be crucial. The second round on July 7 will be a decisive moment for France and its place in Europe.
