The United States and Arab mediators are edging closer to a deal aimed at halting the devastating war in Gaza and securing the release of hostages captured by Hamas in their October 7th attack. However, these negotiations have dragged on for months, marked by false hope and setbacks. The talks have gained renewed urgency as Iran and Hezbollah, Lebanon’s powerful Shiite militia, vowed to avenge the targeted killing of two top militants, attributed to Israel, raising fears of a wider and potentially more devastating conflict.
After two days of discussions in Qatar last week, US and Israeli officials expressed cautious optimism, citing a bridging proposal put forth by the mediators. Hamas, however, has been less enthusiastic, arguing that the latest proposal deviates from previous versions that they had largely accepted. The current proposal encompasses a three-phase process: first, Hamas would release all hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners; second, Israel would withdraw from Gaza; and third, a lasting ceasefire would be established.
The ongoing conflict has become the deadliest war ever waged between Israelis and Palestinians, destabilizing the Middle East and sparking global protests. Israel’s offensive has resulted in the deaths of over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, who do not specify how many were militants. The vast majority of the Gaza population has been displaced, often multiple times, with hundreds of thousands crammed into squalid tent camps. The health system has largely collapsed, and entire neighborhoods have been obliterated. The Hamas attack on October 7th claimed the lives of approximately 1,200 people, primarily civilians, and resulted in the abduction of around 250 hostages. While over 100 hostages were released during a week-long ceasefire in November, approximately 110 remain in Gaza. Israeli authorities claim that around a third of the hostages are deceased.
Since the war’s outset, Hezbollah has launched drones and rockets into Israel almost daily, prompting Israeli airstrikes and artillery responses. This escalating violence has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on both sides of the border. Hezbollah has vowed an even more severe attack, though they have not specified the timing or method, in retaliation for the killing last month of Fouad Shukur, a top commander, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Other Iran-backed groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have also engaged in attacks against Israeli, US, and international targets in solidarity with the Palestinians.
In April, Iran and Israel engaged in direct fire exchanges, and many fear a repeat if Iran carries out its threat to avenge the killing of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an explosion in Tehran that was attributed to Israel. Hezbollah has indicated that they would cease operations along the border if calm is restored in Gaza. A ceasefire agreement might also persuade Hezbollah and Iran to refrain from retaliatory strikes against Israel, at least temporarily, to avoid being perceived as spoilers in the peace process.
The potential agreement faces numerous hurdles. Hamas seeks assurances that Israel will not resume the war after the initial release of the most vulnerable hostages, estimated at around 30. Israel, on the other hand, aims to ensure that negotiations do not stretch indefinitely over the second phase, involving the release of the remaining living hostages, including male soldiers. Netanyahu has also demanded in recent weeks that Israel maintain a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent arms smuggling and along a line bisecting the territory to search Palestinians returning to their homes in the north and ensure that militants do not infiltrate. Israel denies that these demands are new, but they were not mentioned in Biden’s speech or the UN resolution, which called for a complete withdrawal.
Additional unresolved issues include the specific Palestinian prisoners to be released and whether they will be sent into exile. Any agreement would require acceptance from both Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, who helped orchestrate the October 7th attack and became Hamas’ overall leader after Haniyeh’s death. Netanyahu faces immense pressure from families of the hostages and much of the Israeli public to secure a deal to bring them home. However, far-right leaders in his coalition have threatened to bring down the government if he makes excessive concessions, forcing early elections that could potentially remove him from power. Meanwhile, Sinwar remains in hiding in Gaza, likely deep within Hamas’ extensive tunnel network, and has maintained a hard line throughout the talks. He also tops Israel’s most-wanted list, raising questions about the implications of his potential death.
Historically, Hamas negotiators have taken several days to convey proposals to Sinwar and receive his feedback. Therefore, even after the latest proposal is finalized, it could take a week or more for Hamas to formally respond. Palestinians in Gaza express their exhaustion and desperation for a ceasefire. When Hamas accepted an earlier proposal in May, spontaneous celebrations erupted, but those hopes were quickly dashed. Aid groups have consistently called for a ceasefire since the war began, emphasizing that it is the only way to guarantee the delivery of urgently needed food and humanitarian aid to Gaza. Experts warn of the potential for famine and outbreaks of diseases like polio if the conflict continues. Even if the fighting ends tomorrow, the UN has estimated that it will take more than a decade and tens of billions of dollars to rebuild Gaza.
In Israel, where many remain deeply traumatized by the October 7th attack, there is widespread support for the war and little sympathy for the Palestinians. However, the plight of the hostages has sparked mass protests demanding a deal to bring them home and the end of Netanyahu’s government, which many blame for the security and intelligence failures that allowed the attack to occur.
