## Germany’s Birth Rate Plunges to New Low Amidst Global Crises
Germany is facing a demographic crisis as its birth rate plummets to its lowest level in decades. According to research released by the Ifo Institute, the number of children born per woman in 2022 dropped to 1.35, significantly lower than the 1.58 recorded in 2021. This decline translates to a total of 693,000 births in 2023, representing a nearly 13% decrease from 2021. The eastern states of Germany, which were previously under communist rule, have experienced an even more pronounced decline, with a 17.5% drop in births.
The Ifo Institute attributes this sharp decline to a series of global crises that have significantly impacted young families. The COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the subsequent surge in inflation have created a climate of economic uncertainty and have prompted many couples to delay having children.
“The string of shocks— the coronavirus crisis, the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and the subsequent drop in real income due to high inflation— have clearly prompted many young families to put off having children for the time being,” explained Ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz.
The research further highlights that these crises have contributed to increased uncertainty, particularly among young adults. The decline in births in the eastern states is particularly stark, with the report attributing this to the shrinking number of women in the crucial 27 to 36 age bracket, who account for the majority of births. While the overall number of women of childbearing age has slightly increased nationwide, largely due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees following the Russian invasion in 2022, this has not translated into a rise in births. The report notes that many Ukrainian women arrived in Germany without partners, limiting the impact on birth rates.
This alarming trend is not new. Germany’s birth rate had already begun to decline in 2015, but recent events have significantly accelerated this downward trend. The Ifo report estimates that nearly 80,000 fewer children were born in 2022 and 2023 than would have been expected under normal conditions.
Germany’s falling birth rate mirrors a broader trend across developed economies where economic pressures and uncertainty are pushing families to delay or forgo having children. This trend poses significant challenges for German businesses, who are already grappling with a severe shortage of skilled labor. The decline in the workforce could further strain the German economy and create long-term challenges for social services and public infrastructure.
