Germany’s working-age population is expected to shrink by 2% by 2045, according to a new forecast, adding to concerns about growth constraints in Europe’s largest economy. While the overall population is projected to grow by 0.9% or 800,000 people due to net migration, the number of people aged 20 to 67 years old will decline by 2%, as per a study conducted by the federal institute for research on building, urban affairs and spatial development (BBSR). Simultaneously, the number of people aged 67 or above, eligible for retirement, is expected to grow by 13.6% or 2.2 million people. German officials have repeatedly highlighted the looming challenge of workforce shortages as a major constraint to economic growth, with approximately 1.57 million jobs currently unfilled. In 2023, net migration to Germany counterbalanced the effects of the country’s birth rate and aging population, leading to a population increase of 300,000, reaching a new record high of 84.7 million people. Construction Minister Klara Geywitz acknowledged that Germany is “becoming older and more diverse,” emphasizing the need to address various challenges over the next two decades, including “securing skilled workers, integration, more age-appropriate housing, digitization across the country, and adapting social infrastructures.”
