While parts of Europe experienced cooler weather and record rainfall, the rest of the world sweltered under record-breaking heat. Data from Copernicus, the EU’s Earth-observation programme, reveals that global air temperatures reached a new high on two consecutive days, surpassing the previous record set just a day earlier. This marks the third year in a row where records set the previous year have been broken.
The biggest influence on the Earth’s temperature, aside from global warming, is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño, the hot phase of ENSO, led to the record-breaking temperatures of 2023 and has only recently come to an end. One of the areas driving up the global average is Antarctica, where temperatures around the South Pole are much higher than usual, contributing to record-low sea ice levels for this time of year.
The world has now seen record monthly temperatures for 13 consecutive months, with every month since July last year being more than 1.5°C above the temperature typical for the corresponding month in the second half of the 19th century. This raises concerns about the Paris agreement’s target of limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While a multi-year trend surpassing the 1.5°C level is needed for a definitive failure of the agreement, the current record-breaking heat emphasizes the urgent need to address climate change.
The second half of the year might see cooler temperatures with the anticipated arrival of La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO, but there is still a high chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023. The current record-breaking heat highlights the urgency of tackling climate change and preventing further temperature increases.